Global vaccine stockpiles prevented more than 5.8 million cases

Embargoed until: Publicly released:
Peer-reviewed: This work was reviewed and scrutinised by relevant independent experts.

Meta-analysis: This type of study involves using statistics to combine the data from multiple previous studies to give an overall result. The reliability of a meta-analysis depends on both the quality and similarity of the individual studies being grouped together.

People: This is a study based on research using people.

A new study from the Burnet Institute revealed the critical role of global vaccine stockpiles in preventing the spread of deadly diseases during outbreaks at a time when routine immunisation rates are falling globally — due to factors like vaccine hesitancy and cuts to major funding bodies such as USAID and Gavi.

Journal/conference: BMJ Global Health

Research: Paper

Organisation/s: Burnet Institute, Monash University, The University of Melbourne

Funder: This work was funded by Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance.

Media release

From: Burnet Institute

The life-saving impact of global vaccine stockpiles to address outbreaks of vaccine-preventable diseases has been demonstrated in new Burnet Institute research.

At a time when routine vaccination is declining and impacted by US funding cuts, the results highlight the ongoing need for an insurance policy against major outbreaks of diseases like cholera, Ebola and measles.

The study is the first to investigate the effectiveness of outbreak response immunisation programs supported by Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, which can be activated in an emergency when a country does not have sufficient vaccine supplies to cover their population at risk.

Published in the journal BMJ Global Health, the study considered 210 outbreaks that occurred between 2000-2023 for five diseases — cholera, Ebola, measles, meningitis and yellow fever.

Outbreak response immunisation was estimated to have prevented more than 5.8 million cases and 327,000 deaths across these outbreaks, providing economic benefits of almost US$32 billion.

“For diseases with routine vaccination programs, maintaining high levels of population immunity is vital for preventing large outbreaks,” study lead author, Burnet PhD candidate Dominic Delport, said.

“But when outbreaks do occur, a rapid vaccine response typically provides the greatest protective impact for the population at risk — and the faster the response, the greater the impact.

“While vaccines are amazing preventively, they are also excellent when used reactively to control outbreaks and save lives.”

Senior author of the study, Burnet head of Modelling and Biostatistics, Associate Professor Nick Scott said a global decline in routine vaccine coverage highlights the value of vaccine stockpiles as insurance against major outbreaks.

“Routine vaccine coverage is declining due to many factors including vaccine hesitancy and funding cuts for organisations like USAID and Gavi, and in many places gaps in coverage due to COVID-19 disruptions haven’t been filled yet,” Associate Professor Scott said.

“And as routine coverage declines, the prospect of more major outbreaks means there’s a growing need for global vaccine stockpiles.”

A novel aspect of the study was a focus on the impact of outbreak response immunisation to keep outbreaks under control before they become overly disruptive.

“If outbreaks become too large, they can have major social and economic impacts — for example if broader public health and social measures need to be introduced, if travel alerts are required, or if the outbreak crosses international borders and requires coordination between countries,” Associate Professor Scott said.

“Vaccine stockpiles have not only prevented many cases and deaths, but they have also prevented outbreaks from reaching the point where they cause substantive issues, and that’s really important.”

The Burnet modelling was commissioned to inform decision-making around Gavi’s planning, management and investment in its emergency global vaccine stockpiles.

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