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Governments plan to produce double the fossil fuels in 2030 than the 1.5°C warming limit allows
Stockholm, 8 November 2023 – A major new report published today finds that governments plan to produce around 110% more fossil fuels in 2030 than would be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C, and 69% more than would be consistent with 2°C.
This comes despite 151 national governments having pledged to achieve net-zero emissions and the latest forecasts which suggest global coal, oil, and gas demand will peak this decade, even without new policies. When combined, government plans would lead to an increase in global coal production until 2030, and in global oil and gas production until at least 2050, creating an ever-widening fossil fuel production gap over time.
The report’s main findings include:
● Given risks and uncertainties of carbon capture and storage and carbon dioxide removal, countries should aim for a near total phase-out of coal production and use by 2040, and a combined reduction in oil and gas production and use by three-quarters by 2050 from 2020 levels, at a minimum.
● While 17 of the 20 countries featured have pledged to achieve net-zero emissions — and many have launched initiatives to cut emissions from fossil fuel production activities — none have committed to reduce coal, oil, and gas production in line with limiting warming to 1.5°C.
● Governments with greater capacity to transition away from fossil fuels should aim for more ambitious reductions and help support the transition processes in countries with limited resources.
The Production Gap Report — produced by Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI), Climate Analytics, E3G, International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) and the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) — assesses governments’ planned and projected production of coal, oil, and gas against global levels consistent with the Paris Agreement’s temperature goal.
July 2023 was the hottest month ever recorded, and most likely the hottest for the past 120,000 years, according to scientists. Across the globe, deadly heat waves, droughts, wildfires, storms, and floods are costing lives and livelihoods, making clear that human-induced climate change is here. Global carbon dioxide emissions — almost 90% of which come from fossil fuels — rose to record highs in 2021–2022.
“Governments’ plans to expand fossil fuel production are undermining the energy transition needed to achieve net-zero emissions, throwing humanity’s future into question,” said Inger Andersen, Executive Director of UNEP. “Powering economies with clean and efficient energy is the only way to end energy poverty and bring down emissions at the same time."
“Starting at COP28, nations must unite behind a managed and equitable phase-out of coal, oil and gas — to ease the turbulence ahead and benefit every person on this planet,” she added.
The 2023 Production Gap Report provides newly expanded country profiles for 20 major fossil-fuel-producing countries: Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Colombia, Germany, India, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Mexico, Nigeria, Norway, Qatar, the Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, and the United States of America. These profiles show that most of these governments continue to provide significant policy and financial support for fossil fuel production.
“We find that many governments are promoting fossil gas as an essential ‘transition’ fuel but with no apparent plans to transition away from it later,” says Ploy Achakulwisut, a lead author on the report and SEI scientist. “But science says we must start reducing global coal, oil, and gas production and use now — along with scaling up clean energy, reducing methane emissions from all sources, and other climate actions — to keep the 1.5°C goal alive.”
Despite being the root cause of the climate crisis, fossil fuels have remained largely absent from international climate negotiations until recent years. At COP26 in late 2021, governments committed to accelerate efforts towards “the phasedown of unabated coal power and phase-out of inefficient fossil fuel subsidies”, though they did not agree to address the production of all fossil fuels.
“COP28 could be the pivotal moment where governments finally commit to the phase-out of all fossil fuels and acknowledge the role producers have to play in facilitating a managed and equitable transition,” says Michael Lazarus, a lead author on the report and SEI US Centre Director. “Governments with the greatest capacities to transition away from fossil fuel production bear the greatest responsibility to do so while providing finance and support to help other countries do the same.”
More than 80 researchers, from over 30 countries, contributed to the analysis and review, spanning numerous universities, think tanks and other research organizations.
Reactions to the 2023 Production Gap Report
"The writing’s on the wall for fossil fuels. By mid-century we need to have consigned coal to the history books, and slashed oil and gas production by at least three quarters — well on the way to a full fossil phase-out. Yet despite their climate promises, governments plan on ploughing yet more money into a dirty, dying industry, while opportunities abound in a flourishing clean energy sector. On top of economic insanity, it is a climate disaster of our own making.”
– Neil Grant, Climate and Energy Analyst, Climate Analytics
"Despite governments around the world signing up to ambitious net zero targets, global coal, oil and gas production are all still increasing while planned reductions are nowhere near enough to avoid the worst effects of climate change. This widening gulf between governments' rhetoric and their actions is not only undermining their authority but increasing the risk to us all. We are already on track this decade to produce 460% more coal, 82% more gas, and 29% more oil than would be in line with the 1.5°C warming target. Ahead of COP28, governments must look to dramatically increase transparency about how they will hit emissions targets and bring in legally binding measures to support these aims."
– Angela Picciariello, Senior Researcher, IISD
“With demand for coal, oil and gas set to peak this decade even without additional policies, it’s clear that the new economic reality is becoming one of clean energy growth and fossil fuel decline — yet governments are failing to plan for the reality of the inevitable energy transition. Continuing investments into new fossil fuel production as global demand for coal, oil and gas narrows is a near term economic gamble for all but the cheapest producers. And climate damages will be aggravated further unless we stop fossil fuel expansion now. The time is now for governments to take control of the clean energy transition and align their policies with the reality of what’s needed for a climate-safe world.“
– Katrine Petersen, Senior Policy Advisor at E3G
Notes to Editors
About the Production Gap Report
Modelled after the UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report series — and conceived as a complementary analysis — this report conveys the large discrepancy between countries' planned fossil fuel production and the global production levels consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C and 2°C.
About the Stockholm Environment Institute
Stockholm Environment Institute is an independent, international research institute that has been engaged in environment and development issues at local, national, regional and global policy levels for more than a quarter of a century. SEI supports decision-making for sustainable development by bridging science and policy.
About Climate Analytics
Climate Analytics is a global climate science and policy institute engaged around the world in driving and supporting climate action aligned to the 1.5°C warming limit. We connect science and policy to empower vulnerable countries in international climate negotiations and inform national planning with targeted research, analysis and support.
About E3G
E3G is an independent European climate change think tank accelerating the transition to a climate safe world. E3G is made up of world leading strategists on the political economy of climate change, dedicated to achieving a safe climate for all. E3G builds cross-sectoral coalitions to achieve carefully defined outcomes, chosen for their capacity to leverage change. E3G works closely with like-minded partners in government, politics, business, civil society, science, the media, public interest foundations and elsewhere. E3G is making the necessary possible.
About the International Institute for Sustainable Development
The International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) is an award-winning, independent think tank championing research-driven solutions to the world's greatest environmental challenges. Our vision is a balanced world where people and the planet thrive; our mission is to accelerate the global transition to clean water, fair economies and a stable climate. With offices in Winnipeg, Geneva, Ottawa and Toronto, our work impacts lives in nearly 100 countries.
About the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)
UNEP is the leading global voice on the environment. It provides leadership and encourages partnership in caring for the environment by inspiring, informing and enabling nations and peoples to improve their quality of life without compromising that of future generations.
Expert Reaction
These comments have been collated by the Science Media Centre to provide a variety of expert perspectives on this issue. Feel free to use these quotes in your stories. Views expressed are the personal opinions of the experts named. They do not represent the views of the SMC or any other organisation unless specifically stated.
Peter Newman is the Professor of Sustainability at Curtin University
The last big barrier to getting rid of fossil fuels is the gas narrative that it is a critical part of the transition to net zero. It is not critical and it only harms the possibilities of achieving net zero. Gas has achieved this position as a clean alternative without any scientific basis. It depends on Carbon Capture and Storage which is not working anywhere, even in WA where the largest CCS project in the world is still not working reliably at Gorgon.
The reality is that every function of gas can now be replaced and gas companies are desperately trying to hang onto their markets by barraging governments and media with their irreplaceable product approach. Even AEMO is saying gas will need to grow possibly after 2050. This is a Trumpian gas narrative. It is scientific nonsense to think that every use of gas will be enabled by collecting the CO2 produced and putting it into special marine sediment hubs. Thermodynamics will determine its commercial unreality. It is time for gas companies to switch to being renewables companies as did Orsted and stop pretending to be a part of the solution.
Professor Samantha Hepburn is a Professor in Energy Law at Deakin Law School, Deakin University
This fourth edition of the production gap report highlights the fundamental misalignment between global fossil fuel production and the climate goals of limiting global warming to 1.5°C or 2°C.
This important report reinforces the fact that most countries continue to subsidize and support fossil fuel production despite legislating pledges to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050.
Australia has implemented net-zero pledges at both the state and federal levels and signed the Global Methane Pledge. However, like many other countries, is nevertheless planning to increase coal and gas production up to 2030, and currently, there are 69 coal projects and 49 oil and gas projects in the pipeline. This represents approximately 5 GtCO2eq of potential emissions.
Disturbingly, Australia has no national policy framework to restrict fossil fuel production, exploration or infrastructure development despite its status as one of the two biggest LNG and coal exporters in the world.
There is no point in implementing tokenistic climate gestures if they are not supported by meaningful emission reduction strategies. Doing so fundamentally subverts our capacity to actually reach net zero and hopefully limit the potential for catastrophic global warming.
Associate Professor Christian Downie is a political scientist and policy advisor with expertise in energy politics, climate politics, and foreign affairs at the Australian National University
In the lead up to the international climate negotiations this month, this report card shows that governments around the world are failing to honour their commitments to keep global temperatures to well below 2°C.
If governments expect to avoid the worst impacts of climate change, they simply cannot carry out their plans to produce more than double the amount of fossil fuels in 2030.
Dr Andrew King is an Associate Professor in Climate Science at the University of Melbourne and the ARC Centre of Excellence for 21st Century Weather
Climate change is the most pressing problem that humanity faces this century. Collectively, our greenhouse gas emissions are rapidly warming the planet and pushing many ecosystems, including our coral reefs, to the precipice. While we have understood the damage we are causing to the planet for many decades, we are still increasing greenhouse gas emissions and this report shows how far we will be from our climate targets if we don't immediately change course.
Fossil fuel use must drop very quickly this decade if we are to succeed in meeting the Paris Agreement targets. Australia is projected to increase coal and gas production by 2030 when we should be a leader in decarbonising our economy and society.
We must have more urgency and make the changes needed to avoid a much hotter world later this century. If we don't act immediately, the children of today will face an inhospitable and unrecognisable climate.
Professor John Quiggin is a Professor of Economics at the University of Queensland
As Australia begins another catastrophic bushfire season, we are being reminded that our own government is stoking the fires that are destroying our homes and our natural environment. The UNEP report is a damning indictment of the Albanese government, and its LNP predecessors . It shows that, under current policies encouraging the extraction and export of coal and gas, we are contributing almost as much to the destruction of the global environment as Saudi Arabia, and more than any other country except China, Russia and the USA.
Ian Lowe is Emeritus professor of science, technology and society at Griffith University, Qld and former President of the Australian Conservation Foundation.
The science has been telling us for years that fossil fuel emissions needed to peak by 2020 to avoid dangerous climate change, but emissions are still increasing. As a large user and an even larger exporter of fossil fuels, Australia has a special responsibility to take concerted action. Despite our government’s pledge to achieve net zero by 2050, we are still approving new gas fields and doing very little to phase out petroleum transport fuels. At the 2022 election, we voted strongly for a responsible approach to climate change. Former defence leaders are now saying that climate change is the greatest threat to our national security. Rather than proceeding with stage three tax cuts and wasting hundreds of billions on nuclear submarines, we should be ploughing the money into a national program to phase out fossil fuels here and abroad.
