EXPERT REACTION: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Alfred downgraded but risks ongoing

Once ex-TC Alfred makes landfall and moves into the southeast corner inland of QLD, the main impact will be rainfall. Flooding will depend on how wet the catchments are, keeping in mind that southeast QLD and northeast inland of NSW have had below average rainfall over recent months. The inland border region, particularly Lismore and surrounding areas will continue to be vulnerable to flooding until the weakened tropical low pressure system extends its rain down along northern border ranges.

TCs and ex-TCs making landfall near Brisbane are rare. However, one major difference between those prior to TC Zoe is that there was usually minimal movement, then a southerly track followed by a southeasterly track away from the QLD coast.

Alfred started off on a mainly southerly track and deviated significantly westward towards the QLD coast at subtropical latitudes. This indicates a lack of controlled movement by the upper mid-latitude westerly winds because they have contracted polewards in recent decades.

The downgrading of the cyclone is a very welcome update. However, the immediate and longer-term impacts will still be substantial. Environmental emergencies are amplifiers of inequity. Women often bear the worst during and after such events, given the disproportionate social and economic disadvantages they experience.

This is a trend we have witnessed across the world in all kinds of varied contexts. Here in Australia we have seen sharp rises in gender based violence immediately after disasters like the Victorian bushfires of 2019. Women are more likely to experience food insecurity post-emergency and less likely to be in stable employment that offers paid leave to deal with the aftermath of a disaster.

Pregnant women are at higher risk of poor birth outcomes during and after these kinds of events. We are likely to see these patterns repeat after cyclone Alfred unless we take targeted action now to protect the health of women and girls in the face of a changing climate. 

Coastal erosion has been widespread, extending from the Sunshine Coast down to the Mid-North NSW coast, with the most severe impacts expected in the Gold Coast and Northern Rivers regions where waves and storm surge water levels were highest. 

The large waves from Tropical Cyclone Alfred peaked through Wednesday-Thursday, in the days before the cyclone crossed the coast, causing rapid erosion through that period and removing the beach and frontal dunes in many locations. 

The unusual easterly wave direction generated by the cyclone’s position saw waves approach the coast from the east-northeast, rather than the more common south-southeast approach directions, meaning that the very large waves took a short-cut across offshore waters, arriving at the coast directly and striking beaches with maximum force. That left the usually more sheltered southern ends of beaches, that are protected from south swells by headlands, fully exposed to the huge waves generated by Tropical Cyclone Alfred.

The wave heights measured by ocean wave buoys were amongst the highest ever measured from an easterly direction along this coastline.

Fortunately, beaches in these regions were in fairly good condition before the cyclone, and the loss of sand from the beach and frontal dunes is to be expected and is how beaches provide a buffer from the ocean in extreme conditions.

While the wave conditions from the cyclone are now easing, beaches will take some time to recover from the erosion as the sand swept offshore by the storm waves will begin to move back onshore over the coming weeks to months.

Over the longer term, the time to full beach recovery will depend on ocean conditions in the coming months. A run of moderate winter swells will help to rebuild beaches by moving sand back onshore, while another similar cyclone or very large winter swells could slow the recovery and even cause more erosion."
 

[On the sea foam forming along the Gold Coast - Thirty-two strains of Nocardiae, a group of bacteria known to cause human and animal infections in skin, lungs and the central nervous system, were isolated from the near-shore sea foam.]

"It harbours bacteria that is far riskier to public health than previously thought. The public needs to be warned. Even after this cyclone is over, our beaches will carry the pathogen.

The public health risk relates to exposure to aerosols generated by the foam as well as direct contact through a wound. To stay safe, do not swim or play in the foam, or breathe near it.

While these natural bacteria are commonly found in soil, water and decaying vegetation, they are opportunistic pathogens and can cause serious disease such as nocardiosis in people and animals with weakened immune systems."

 

Comment provided 8/3:

"Floodwater can be contaminated with sewage, agricultural and industrial waste, and other substances that can cause illness. There is a danger that any food, surfaces and cooking utensils that have come into contact with floodwater might be contaminated.

Follow these tips:

• Throw out food that has come into contact with floodwater or has an unusual odour, colour or texture. Do not taste or cook it.
• Check canned and unopened bottled food and throw out any cans that are dented, swollen or damaged. Some cans and bottled products might be salvageable  - remove the label and thoroughly wash the outside of the can with drinking-quality water and sanitise the can in bleach.
• Vegetable gardens can take a month to become suitable for harvest after flood or sewage discharge. Discard all leafy green produce or damaged vine or dropped tree fruits.
• Wash utensils and surfaces in hot, soapy, drinking-quality water. Take apart and clean the non-electrical pieces of any kitchen equipment that can be safety taken apart and then rinse in clean, hot water.
• Commercial and most domestic dishwashers are capable of sanitising all eating and cooking utensils as part of their normal cycle.
• Monitor public announcements and those from the local water supplier to know if tap water is safe to use. Private water supplies should be tested before using again – contact your council.
• If the water is unsafe use only bottled, boiled or treated water – in that order of preference  for drinking, cooking or preparing food, washing utensils and surfaces, brushing teeth, hand washing, making ice, and bathing.

Comment provided  5/3:

The Food Safety Information Council has issued food safety advice for consumers about how to be prepared for power outages during Cyclone Alfred.

Here are our food safety tips for when the power is out:

Check the time. If your power has gone out your food will remain safe in your refrigerator for 2 hours. If it is longer than 2 hours, but less than 4 hours, you should use the food immediately. If it has been more than 4 hours, throw the food out.

Don’t keep opening. Resist the temptation to open fridge or freezer doors during the power cut unless you have to remove food to eat, check the temperature of the food with a thermometer after 2 hours, or place chilled items in the freezer.

Your freezer is your friend. Freezers that operate at minus 18°C or below can keep foods at safe temperatures for between 1 and 2 days. If the freezer door is kept shut, a full freezer can keep food chilled for up to 48 hours, while a half full freezer can keep food chilled for 24 hours.

Coolers can help. Always keep frozen bricks or gel packs in your freezer to place in a cooler or esky. Remove all meats, poultry, dairy and potentially hazardous food (for example dips, pâté, ham, prepared and cooked food) from the fridge and place in a cooler with frozen bricks or gel packs evenly distributed.

Some foods are OK. Salted butter, margarine and hard cheeses such as cheddar will remain safe at room temperature, as are sweet or acidic items such as jams, sauces, soft drinks, spreads, pickles and olives.

Don’t forget cooked food. Remember to throw out food that was being cooked when the power failed if cooking cannot be completed properly within 2 hours. If food is already properly cooked, eat it within 2 hours or throw it out.

If you are unsure about the time that has passed or the temperature your food has been stored at then throwing the food out is the safest option. Re-cooking food will not eliminate the risk of foodborne illness as some bacteria produce a toxin, which is not destroyed at the temperature used to cook or reheat food.

Finally we urge everyone to download our useful poster about what to do with cold food when the power goes off so you have this advice at hand.

Comment issued 8/3:

The recent Cyclone Alfred, now ex-Cyclone Alfred downgraded to a tropical low, demonstrates how unpredictable cyclones can be. Formed in the Coral Sea more than 10 days ago, it has been successively gaining and losing strength, making it hard to predict the eventual impact.

Tropical cyclones feed off the warmth of the sea. The deeper it is, the more heat the sea can store and radiate, creating the convection currents that form cyclones. That is why cyclones develop in the outer sea. As it gets closer to the coast, the water becomes shallower, and hence there is less warmth, causing the cyclone to weaken. Also, cloud cover generated by the cyclonic activity can reduce heat gain in the water.

Therefore, while the wind power of Alfred has reduced, and Brisbane and SE Queensland have escaped the worst-case scenario, it is still bringing strong gusts, and importantly, a lot of rain, which can cause flooding. That is the main impact to watch out for.

Given the long lead time, there has been extensive preparedness measures across South-east Queensland and Northern NSW, including extensive evacuations, which is a positive sign that emergency management agencies have gained lessons from past events and have stepped up and incorporated that into their practices.

Nonetheless, there are still challenges – supplies of sandbags had run out, as well as traffic congestion to and from supply depots, making those who were not able to avail themselves vulnerable.

Similar transport issues are evident in providing food and essential supplies to the large number of evacuation centres (more than 500 in NSW) because of roads being already flooded from the previous and ongoing rainfall. There would be a need to mobilise helicopters and planes to provide relief supplies.

In addition to flash floods, there is also the risk of riverine flooding, particularly in Lismore where the Wilsons River is at a very high level and may breach the city’s dyke with continued heavy rainfall. Some areas in the Northern Rivers are already experiencing inundation.

The focus is now on Lismore and the Northern Rivers, where the main focus of the response and recovery efforts will need to be concentrated. The region had experienced a series of recent floods, notably in 2022, and recovery from them are still ongoing, so the recent events will add to the challenges.

There is a need for a long-term recovery plan, together with relocation and resettlement efforts, which has already been initiated to some extent through the government’s ‘buy-back’ and other related initiatives in the Northern Rivers. This is a space that disaster professionals and researchers will need to keep an eye on.

Comment issued 3/3 and updated 4/3:

Tropical cyclones are clearly linked to global warming resulting from climate change, with increasing frequency and magnitude, pointed out by scientists for a while now, for example in a 2012 report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

The increasing magnitude is evident - for example, recently Cyclone Zelia in WA impacted well inland with extensive flooding. The impending Cyclone Alfred can be expected to similarly affect inland areas, and there are predictions that it will impact a large geographical area, demonstrating the growing extent of such events.

While tropical cyclones occur in the tropics and warm regions, as the name suggests, Cyclone Aldred is predicted to also impact northern NSW, which is generally not an area at risk to cyclones; the last cyclone warning here was more than 50 years ago. This is perhaps an indication that due to global warming, the reach of tropical cyclones is extending further than the tropics, requiring preparedness in areas where cyclones are unprecedented.

While there are efforts to warn communities and provide support for protective measures -sandbags, cleaning gutters and drains, etc – it’s important to be cautious about the possibility of trees falling and harming properties and posing a threat to people. Beyond ‘stay-and-protect’ measures, there should also be anticipatory evacuation plans for safe refuges, especially for vulnerable people including the elderly, people with disabilities, and children.

The risk is not only from the expected strong winds; there is also the likelihood of secondary impacts including flash flooding and storm/tidal surges. Preparedness measures should also consider these risks. The multi-hazard nature with compounding and cascading effects is important to note.

Unlike rapid-onset disasters such as earthquakes, cyclones tend to be slow-onset, and there is usually a lead time before landfall, allowing early warning and preparedness activities. Cyclone Alfred formed 9 days ago, a warning was issued on 24 February, and landfall is expected on 6-7 March, so there has been and still is adequate preparedness time. It should be expected that preparedness measures should reduce the cyclone’s impact.

A key impact of cyclones is on buildings, and older buildings not constructed to updated building codes are vulnerable, requiring specific focus on keeping an eye on such buildings and to be ready for robust recovery actions.

The key lesson is the need for establishing a nationwide, anticipatory, cyclone preparedness program in all coastal regions with a wide inland catchment that can spring into quick action.

Comment released 08/03/2025

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Alfred will result in major flooding causing damage and disruption.

Despite being downgraded to an ex-Tropical Cyclone, Alfred remains a threat to flood prone communities. Early warnings have given communities time to prepare, many of whom are still recovering from severe flooding in 2022.

Major riverine and flash flooding is likely to occur across South East Queensland and North East NSW. Research shows that flooding is often the most deadliest element of such severe weather.

Most deaths are due to deliberate decisions to enter floodwater. People should not walk, drive or play in floodwater.

Previous research has found that 84% of motorists ignore road closure signs. Those that are most likely to enter floodwater are younger men, those that work outdoors and drivers of 4WDs. Only a small error in judgement can be fatal. Floodwater might be deeper or faster flowing than expected, the road maybe washed away underneath, or conditions could rapidly change.

There are reports of people staying in their homes despite being warned to evacuate. In previous research we have found that people who have stayed in similar circumstances have encountered a range of problems including loss of services and have reported feeling anxious. Some have risked their lives by entering floodwater to evacuate late after changing their mind, others have needed to be rescued. People should always follow the directions of emergency services.

Attention will quickly turn to how we can reduce future flood disasters and lower insurance premiums in the face of worsening risk. Options include flood mitigation infrastructure, relocation of communities, raising homes or retro-fitting them with flood resilient materials, risk-based land-use planning and nature-based solutions. Ultimately these must be tailored to local community risks.

Comment released 05/03/2025

Disasters can have detrimental effects on businesses, but there are steps that business owners can take to minimise damage and ensure the safety of their most valuable resource – their staff. Research has shown that businesses can save significant damages by implementing preparedness actions before a flood. However, not all businesses are well prepared. Small businesses can struggle to recover following major flood damage. Consider the flood risk for your business. Often this information is available on local council websites.

In retail businesses, often carpets, fittings and stock can be lost. Having a plan to relocate these to a higher area or outside the floodplain can help reduce losses. Have a look around the premises and secure any items that might float. Fittings made from particle board can be particularly vulnerable to flood damage.

Don’t forget about your important records, paperwork, technology and your people. Have you got your critical records backed up and stored in the cloud or offsite?

Have a plan to evacuate staff and customers, this includes knowing when to evacuate and what routes to take. Make sure employees know not to enter floodwater; the research shows this is most dangerous aspect of a cyclone and has led to the most fatalities.

It will also be vital that businesses can stay connected with their employees to provide updates and make sure they are safe, and to update their customers and suppliers. Consider too if you will be able operate your business while offsite.

Most importantly, talk to your staff about your plan and make sure they know what their roles will be. Being as prepared as possible ahead of the cyclone will help everyone stay safe and give your business the best chance to either stay up and running, or open as soon as possible after the cyclone.

Comment released 04/03/2025

Research is providing useful tips that people can use to prepare for Tropical Cyclone Alfred, including how to keep their pets and animals safe.

Our research after the 2022 south-east Queensland and northern New South Wales floods showed that of the more than 600 people researchers spoke to, more than 70% were pet owners.  Evidence demonstrates that owning animals influences people’s behaviour during an emergency.

Following previous emergencies, people reported placing themselves in danger to protect their animals. This can be avoided through early preparation and action.

Research-informed reminders can help ensure the entire family is considered in your emergency plans, including:

• Knowing what you need to prepare and take for your animals – consider food and water, collars, leads, medication, toileting, bedding, toys and treats.
• Know how you will contain and transport your pet(s) – do you have an appropriate carrier or crate and is your animal comfortable with it?
• Know what specific needs your animal may have if you need to evacuate – like people, all animals are unique and have different travel needs.
• Know when you will leave – animals can sense stress so preparing animals earlier, including putting them in their travel crate or carrier, will help timely evacuation.
• Know where you will take your animals – if accessing an evacuation centre, check they can accommodate and are suitable for animals.
• Know how you and your pets will get to your chosen safe place – plan evacuation routes and have alternative options as roads may be closed.

If you rely on an assistance animal and are advised to evacuate, make sure you have their halter and lead clearly showing they are a service animal.

Livestock, farm animals and horses also need to be considered in emergency planning, whether on your property or kept elsewhere.

We know animals are family. Being prepared and taking early action can ensure everyone is safe – you, your family and your animals.

Comment released 03/03/2025

The possible landfall of Tropical Cyclone Alfred later this week highlights that residents of south east Queensland and northern New South Wales must take cyclone risks seriously. Early preparation can reduce damage and increase safety, however research from Natural Hazards Research Australia shows that often people do not understand what they need to do to be fully prepared. For example, research after the 2022 floods in Queensland and New South Wales found that 50% of residents acknowledged that they could have been more prepared.

Tropical cyclones have impacted south east Queensland and northern New South Wales before. In 1954 and 1974 severe cyclones made landfall at Coolangatta, resulting in severe flooding and loss of life across the region. South east Queensland has been developed significantly since this time, with many more people, and significant infrastructure, now in the firing line. Other significant cyclones have passed close to south east Queensland but have remained offshore (e.g. TC Dinah, 1967, TC Nancy 1990 and TC Oma, 2019).

Primary hazards associated with cyclones are flooding, strong winds and coastal erosion. These hazards occurring in densely populated areas like Brisbane, the Sunshine Coast, the Gold Coast and northern New South Wales is of significant concern. The damage that Alfred could lead to includes damages to homes, businesses and infrastructure; disruption to essential services and supply chains; agricultural losses; and injury and fatalities. Significant coastal damage can occur without a cyclone making landfall because of abnormally high tides and damaging surf.

If your home is older than 1980, it may not be built to the building codes and is at significant risk to strong winds. Caravans and cabins are particularly at risk, while fallen trees may damage powerlines resulting in blackouts and wider disruptions.

Flooding and cyclones

Flooding is the deadliest facet of a cyclone. Most lives are lost in floods because people chose to enter floodwater. Previous research has found that 84% of motorists ignore road closure signs. Those that are most likely to enter floodwater are younger men, those that work outdoors and drivers of 4WDs. Only a small error in judgement can be fatal.

You never know what is under the surface – floodwater can easily wash away the surface of the road and in seconds your life is in danger as you’re off the road, into the current and your vehicle is sinking.

What can you do? Make a disaster plan

Research shows the most important thing you can do is make a plan. A great example your family can use is the Red Cross emergency plan. Visit redcross.org.au/prepare to get started. Your local council is also a great resource and has information online to help identify if a home or business is at-risk of flooding.

The future

Research after the 2022 flooding in Queensland and New South Wales tells us that there are big picture issues that affect how people respond and recover – community connection and communication, local capacity for action, flexibility in disaster adaptation and personal control over decision making are all key aspects that influence the how people manage adversity. This research can inform any recovery plans that might be needed following Tropical Cyclone Alfred.

Climate change is influencing our weather. We should expected fewer tropical cyclones, but a greater proportion of these are expected to be severe. Heavier rainfall intensities, combined with higher sea levels will increase the risk of flooding associated with tropical cyclones.

We must plan for this, and use scientific knowledge, to ensure Australians remain safe and we protect our environment and the places we love.

Comment provided 8/3

With Cyclone Alfred downgraded to a Tropical Low, the focus has shifted to identifying areas prone to intense rainfall, flash floods, and inundations. Local governments are using GIS-based approaches, hydraulic models, and high-resolution Digital Elevation Models (DEM) derived from archived airborne laser surveys to delineate low-lying flood-prone regions near rivers and creeks.

A critical aspect of disaster response is the detection and monitoring of inundated areas in the populated regions, which can be achieved using multi-temporal remote sensing imagery.  Optical imagery, particularly in the near-infrared (NIR) spectrum, is effective for mapping water bodies but is often obstructed by cloud cover. Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) overcomes this limitation by capturing high-resolution imagery in all weather conditions, enabling accurate and timely flood extent mapping and infrastructure damage detection. Interferometric SAR (InSAR) further enhances disaster assessment by detecting terrain deformations, including landslides, ground subsidence, and infrastructure damage resulting from heavy rainfall.

Microwave satellites, such as Sentinel-1, with frequent revisit cycles, are key assets for flood response in Southeast Queensland, providing crucial data for flood mapping and terrain stability analysis. NovaSAR also offers valuable datasets for post-event impact assessment. Complementary optical satellite datasets from MODIS can support real-time monitoring of cloud cover, precipitation, and temperature anomalies. Integrating optical, radar, and thermal datasets can enhance situational awareness, improving decision-making for the post extreme weather event.

Comment provided 3/3

The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) is currently monitoring Cyclone Alfred using national weather watch radars. In addition, BOM relies on various remote sensing satellites that continuously collect data on the Earth’s surface and atmosphere from space. These satellites gather information not only in the visible range but also in the near-infrared, shortwave infrared, thermal infrared, and microwave regions of the electromagnetic spectrum.

For tropical cyclones, these sensors provide valuable and diverse information that tracks the cyclones and offers crucial parameters for predicting their pathways. While most geostationary weather monitoring satellites provide real-time or near-real-time data on the cyclone’s eye and pathways, low Earth orbit satellites, especially those collecting microwave data, offer high-resolution information on the extent of subsequent inundation. Microwave sensors can penetrate clouds, providing real-time data on sea surface temperature and surface winds, which are key parameters for predicting a cyclone’s path.

BOM and other websites, such as Zoom Earth, offer interactive weather maps of the world. Key satellites include NOAA’s polar (NOAA series) and geostationary (GOES), EUMETSAT Meteosat, JMA Himawari, and KAI Geo-KOMPSAT geostationary satellites. For the southern hemisphere, the Japanese Himawari satellite is crucial for providing real-time information and BOM’s numerical weather prediction models for forecasting.

"Potential flooding as a result of Tropical Cyclone Alfred increases the risk of people becoming infected by melioidosis. Whilst melioidosis is most common in the far north Queensland and the Northern Territory, cases have been detected further south in previous years raising the possibility of new cases emerging in the wake of Cyclone Alfred.  People should avoid floodwaters and mud as much as possible, cover any open wounds and avoid inhaling water droplets from floodwaters."

The devastating impact of Cyclone Alfred in Queensland with the forecast of ferocious winds and catastrophic flooding could submerge 20,000 Brisbane properties. It underscores both the immediate and systemic vulnerabilities in our infrastructure and emergency preparedness frameworks to be multi-hazard resilient.

Enhanced resilience could be achieved by integrating cyclone-specific strategies within our broader risk management approaches, including reinforced structures and infrastructure codes, adaptive urban planning, and improved early warning systems. Leveraging advanced digital tools for real-time monitoring, communication and community engagement will be essential to minimise future damage and significantly strengthen overall disaster resilience.

"It is particularly important that those who are more vulnerable plan to leave early in the event of a disaster. This includes pregnant women and parents with babies and toddlers. We know that caring for children means that everything takes longer, this includes evacuating. Parents should plan to leave early, pack an evacuation kit for their child, and arrange to evacuate to a friend or family member's home rather than an evacuation centre if possible.

Members of the community can play an important role in supporting pregnant women and families with babies and toddlers in disasters. Friends and family who have a home that is safe in the disaster can offer it as a place of evacuation. In evacuation centres, community members and emergency responders should check in with parents, especially mothers who have evacuated on their own with small children, and ask if they have everything that they need. Providing a separate and supported space in evacuation centres for pregnant women and families with very young children can also help to keep them safe. 

In the aftermath of disasters, it can be difficult for parents, especially mothers, to look after themselves and their children, especially their babies and toddlers. It is vital that disaster recovery interventions are provided to take care of mothers so they can take care of their babies and toddlers. In the humanitarian emergencies, this support has been provided for over 25 years by an intervention called the Mother-Baby Area. MBAs provide a safe and welcoming space for pregnant women and new mothers to connect with other women, to receive support and assistance in caring for their children and referral to other services. MBAs have been shown to increase mothers’ social connectedness, reduce mothers’ stress and suffering, improve the quality of interactions between mothers and their children, increase uptake of positive health behaviours. MBAs should be deployed in the aftermath of Cyclone Alfred in southern Queensland and northern NSW)."

Following on from the BiBS Study and with the assistance of Professor Gribble, the Australian Breastfeeding Association has developed resources to help parents and to help emergency responders to support families with young children during and after Australian disasters including evacuation kit lists, guides on keeping infants safe in evacuation centres and the Mother-baby area guide for Australia. For more information, visit https://www.breastfeeding.asn.au/emergency-resources-babies-and-toddlers and https://www.breastfeeding.asn.au/supporting-families-emergencies 

For further insights, read Adjunct Associate Professor Gribble’s recently published paper on the experiences and support for caregivers during the 2019-2020 bushfires: Experiences and Support for Caregivers of Infants and Young Children. 

Flood waters create many obvious hazards to life and property - but perhaps a less obvious one is that they can be highly contaminated. Flooding of urban areas often disrupts sewerage systems and triggers faecal contamination of flood waters. Also, the electricity, telecommunication and drinking water systems can also fail, due to flood damage. These problems can last for weeks after the flood peak has passed and the clean-up work begins.

I urge people to limit contact with floodwaters and post-flood residues. Also, care needs to be taken if people have any cuts or scratches that may allow flood-contaminated waters to cause infections. Remember that young, elderly and others with weaker immune systems will need to be particularly careful. Having a first aid kit at hand will be important. 

If possible, have bottled water available for an emergency. Or be prepared to boil water. If you can, whilst you have clean drinking water available, fill empty bottles before floods may eventuate.

The latest round of flooding along the east coast of Australia has again raised the prospect that households will again be facing huge financial pressures because their insurance is inadequate or too costly.

A recent report by the Actuaries Institute has highlighted how vulnerable Australians are being placed in financial stress by escalating home insurance costs. The report estimates that up to 1 million households may now struggle to afford home insurance premiums.

In some cases, households are being told their policies could be $25,000 per year.

Cases like this suggest that our current model of home insurance is not fit for purpose as we continue to face escalating climate disasters. The sharp rise in complaints over insurance claims to the Australian Finance Complaints Authority, and struggles for people who can no longer insure their homes will only increase unless there is a re-set on how we as a society do home insurance differently.

The frequency and severity of climate extremes is increasing at an alarming rate. Calculations by Climate Risk, more than 445,000 Australian homes are predicted to be uninsurable for fire within 30 years, with this number rising to 718,000 by 2100.

But it’s riverine flooding that poses the greatest insurance risk – making up 80% of properties considered uninsurable by 2030. According to a recent Climate Council report, across Australia, 2.5% of properties (360,691 properties) will be at ‘high risk’ of riverine flooding by 2030, with a further 372,684 at ‘medium risk’ of riverine flooding.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred is currently moving southward, parallel to the Australian east coast.  Although Alfred is a category 2 tropical cyclone with maximum sustained surface winds estimated at 50 knots or 95 kilometres per hour, it has already produced large waves of over 10 metres in height, impacting K’gari and Rainbow Beach regions of Queensland.

Alfred is now forecast to move slowly southeastward until at least Tuesday midday before making a sharp right turn directly toward the Australian coast. Landfall is currently expected sometime on Thursday near Maroochydore, but there is a very large uncertainty associated with the actual landfall position. Landfall impacts include damaging winds extending 50 to 100 kilometres from the centre of the tropical cyclone, very high waves causing coastal erosion, and potentially heavy rainfall, most likely on the southern side of the tropical cyclone.

Why is Alfred suddenly heading toward Australia?

Tropical cyclone motion is impacted by a few different factors, including prevailing wind conditions, other nearby weather systems, land surfaces and terrain, and sometimes structural irregularities within the tropical cyclone itself. Tropical cyclones that form off the east coast of Australia generally move south and east away from the Australian coastline. This is because they become quickly influenced by the midlatitude westerly flow. There are exceptions to this general rule of thumb though, with notable examples including tropical cyclones Debbie in 2017, Seth in 2021 to 2022, and Jasper in 2023.

In Alfred’s case, the current southeastward motion is heavily influenced by an extension north of the midlatitude flow; a midlatitude trough. When tropical cyclones interact with a midlatitude trough, they begin to undergo a process known as extratropical transition.  During this transition, the tropical cyclone continues to move poleward, interacts with the midlatitude trough, becomes structurally quite asymmetric, compared with the symmetry of a tropical cyclone. Sometimes, they can re-intensify into a significant and impactful hybrid extratropical cyclone, sometimes more intense than the original tropical cyclone. While Alfred is currently interacting with the midlatitude trough extension, models now suggest that it will break away from the trough as the subtropical ridge strengthens. The midlatitude trough will move off to the east and Alfred will change direction sharply to the west toward Australia under the influence of the subtropical ridge.

Why didn’t the numerical weather prediction models capture this change earlier?

As a tropical cyclone moves out of the tropics and toward the midlatitudes during extratropical transition, the potential influence of the dominant flow patterns is dependent on the timing of the tropical cyclone, the midlatitude trough, and the potentially re-strengthening subtropical ridge. Any errors in the numerical weather prediction model initial fields can result in a very different forecast; this is the classic chaos theory problem. Small errors, well within the limits of our observing system, can result in widely different outcomes in the model forecasts especially for tropical cyclone tracks.

While the numerical weather prediction models now are all predicting the sharp westward change in track direction of Alfred toward Australia, there is still considerable uncertainty about the exact timing of the track change, the future speed of motion and exact westward direction, all of which combine to create a high level of uncertainty in the final landfall position and time. After the track change has happened, the models will be better able to converge on a solution and we will see a reduction in the uncertainty rings on the Bureau of Meteorology graphics for landfall.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred is a reminder that tropical cyclones, while normally contained to north of the 25 degree parallel, can still track further south. Most tropical cyclones near Brisbane have been minor – the most damaging were Dinah in 1967 and Wanda in 1974. The 'Great Flood of 1954' – which resulted in large flooding for northern NSW and SE Queensland – was also caused by a tropical cyclone that made landfall just inside the Queensland border. 

While uncommon, most tropical cyclone risk actually resides in SE Queensland. This is because there is significantly more exposure (people and assets) than there is further north, and so while the probability is lower, the risk (which is probability multiplied by consequence) is much greater.

Interestingly, the last near miss we had for a tropical cyclone in this area was Tropical Cyclone Oma in 2019. Oma eventually stayed off the coast, but occurred in the same year as the devastating Townsville floods. This year, we have also had flooding around Townsville with similar characteristics as 2019, and a very similar southerly tracking cyclone. While not the only factor, a common thread is very warm sea surface temperatures – currently ocean temperatures are warm enough to sustain tropical cyclones down to Sydney, which is very unusual.

This is a complex forecasting situation and you can bet that authorities are focusing all their energy on it.

The Bureau has access to all of the world’s forecasting models as well as running its own high resolution models. They will be looking at potential movement of TC Alfred, winds, waves and swell, rainfall, and everything else. They will be talking to the rest of us 24/7, and Emergency Services will be leading a heap of preparation.  

But remember that warnings are useless unless we’re paying attention. I’d encourage everybody in the area to keep up with the situation and the official advice being given. There will be a lot of noise and different voices on social media, but the advice that matters most comes from the BOM and Emergency Services.

The approaching tropic cyclone is coinciding with floods, fires and heat waves across the country, completing the 'big 4' of extreme weather. We are probably due a decent hail storm to the east coast too.
 
The time has come to start to accept the impact of climate change, via extreme weather events on our built environment, rather than focusing on mitigation. The insurance industry has begun to understand these impacts, however, unfortunately regulations for new buildings still lag behind.

Key amongst changes required is design strategies that promote building retention alongside the primary goal of life safety. This can be achieved with relatively minimal costs and impact to affordability through clever design and material choices, and many initiatives can be retrospectively applied to existing dwellings to significantly improve resilience. Building retention is critical to reducing insurance risk and ensuring safe and resilient houses across Australia.

TC Alfred will have a significant impact on our beaches and dunes. Waves are forecasted to peak at around 7m, 13s from the SE which is approximately a 1 in 20 or 1 in 50 AEP event, similar to TC Oma back in 2019. What makes it uniquely hazardous is that, as opposed to TC Oma, the coast is already eroded from the run of NE and E swells and very high tides from the last couple of days. This means that as peak wave heights approach the coast at some stage this Wednesday, the chances of overtopping and flooding are high, especially during high tide. 
 
Similarly, Bribie Island has been subject to considerable erosion already the last couple of days, with reports of the Happy Valley channel reopening. This would have serious implications for places such as Golden Beach, which are now very exposed to wave energy.

Risk mitigation for TCs like Alfred relies on good predictions of the probable future path and also intensity (or category) changes. However, the tracking of TCs is difficult to predict and sensitive to upper level atmospheric pressure changes. TCs can thrive on weaker upper level winds, even though the sea level winds they produce can be extreme, as is commonly known.

These storms often recurve to move in the opposite direction if they reach extratropical waters, due to easterly winds of the middle and upper troposphere in these waters. In addition, the dynamics of any concurrent subtropical highs in the Tasman Sea play a primary role in influencing this tracking path.

Sinuosity, a measure of the curvature and re-curvature of TC tracking paths has been increasing in the Coral Sea in the last forty to fifty years, which makes these events more unpredictable and therefore increases their risk. TCs can also rapidly intensify, and this is a phenomenon that needs more research to understand the underlying mechanisms.

This threat from TC Alfred highlights the importance for our region of supporting research into tropical cyclone phenomena such as the prediction, simulation and modelling of tracking paths, locations of maximum intensity over their lifetime before decay and drivers of rapid intensification.

Can we stop cyclones before they start?

As climate change escalates cyclone disaster risks, traditional vulnerability and exposure reduction measures are proving insufficient. With Cyclone Alfred threatening densely populated areas of Southeast Queensland, the need for innovative intervention methods has never been more urgent. Conventional preparedness can only do so much when facing potentially catastrophic storm systems.

Our research at ANU explores direct cyclone intervention as a potentially revolutionary climate change response that merits prioritised investigation. Such technology would be invaluable right now as communities across Queensland brace for Alfred's impact, potentially preventing the devastation we're currently anticipating.

We've examined various intervention possibilities, including underwater pipes to introduce cooler water into cyclone formation zones and atmospheric aerosol injection techniques. Our findings suggest that aerosols—microscopic airborne particles—show particular promise for influencing tropical cyclones during their formative stages.

While too late for Cyclone Alfred, developing these intervention capabilities could protect future communities from similar threats. Our team has been evaluating different aerosol methodologies that could disrupt cyclone formation, potentially saving lives and billions in recovery costs when the next Alfred threatens our shores.

“Tropical Cyclone Alfred is slow moving and that creates the largest waves – One Tree Island Research Station, located about 100 kilometres off Gladstone, has been recently fitted with two wave buoys, one on the more sheltered northern zone and the other on the exposed south-eastern zone. Tropical Cyclone Alfred triggered the largest waves that we have recorded – over seven metres on Monday morning – since we first started measuring waves at One Tree Island in November 2022.  

Tropical cyclones can cause widespread damage to coral reefs. Their ability to break coral is enhanced when the corals are fragile, like they are now, because of the mass bleaching event of 2024.  

The managers and researchers at One Tree Island were evacuated last Wednesday and they are safe. The research station is probably safe, too, because the largest waves happened during a low tide. But the changes that these waves might have brought will be there for us to study.  

We expect that the large waves have broken the corals and generated rubble that might have now been placed onto the reef flats. That rubble will then move towards the island, which is made of rubble, to feed it and keep it stable. Subsequent cyclones will not find any coral to break and create rubble until the coral recovers and has time to grow – and that will be dependent on future marine heatwaves and bleaching events."