EXPERT REACTION: COVID-19 caused a 7% emissions drop, but how do we keep it going?

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The COVID-19 pandemic cut fossil fuel emissions by around 7 per cent in 2020, but that could be undone if post-COVID-19 investment continues to be dominated by fossil fuels, warn Australian and international experts. They say in the five years before the COVID-19 pandemic, emissions from 64 countries declined, but emissions from 150 countries - including Australia - went up. They say early data suggests that global emissions started to rise again in December 2020, potentially offsetting the drops during lockdowns. Strategic actions now, such as the large scale deployment of renewable energy and disinvestment in fossil-fuel infrastructure, could minimise the rebound and reinforce cuts in global emissions in the long term, they say.

Journal/conference: Nature Climate Change

Link to research (DOI): 10.1038/s41558-021-01001-0

Organisation/s: CSIRO, University of East Anglia, UK

Funder: C.L.Q. was funded by the Royal Society (project no. RP\R1\191063). P.F. and G.P.P. were funded by the European Commission Horizon 2020 (H2020) 4C project (821003), R.M.A. and C.L.Q. by the H2020 VERIFY project (776810), M.W.J. by the H2020 CHE project (776186), G.P.P. by the H2020 Paris Reinforce project (820846) and J.G.C. by the Australian National Environmental Science Programme-Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub.

Media release

From: Springer Nature

Global carbon emissions fell by 7% due to COVID-19 restrictions

Global CO2 emissions declined by around 7% in 2020 compared to 2019 levels, according to a paper published in Nature Climate Change. This decrease results primarily from the extensive policies implemented around the world to slow the spread of COVID-19, highlighting the scale of actions and international adherence needed to sustain such reductions in the post-COVID-19 era.

Building on their previous work, Corinne Le Quéré and colleagues report an annual summary of global CO2 emissions for 2020, assessing the impact of COVID-19 restrictions on emissions throughout the year. They find that global CO2 emissions fell by around 2.6 gigatonnes (Gt) in 2020 — the largest decrease observed to date — to approximately 34 GtCO2. This represents a decrease of around 7% over the course of the year compared to 2019 levels.

The authors also analyse emissions trends in different countries since the adoption of the Paris Climate Agreement in 2015. They show that in the group of high-income countries, emissions had declined by 0.8% per year on average since the Paris Agreement, with a further decrease of 9% in 2020 due to COVID-19. In the group of upper-middle-income countries, growth in emissions had slowed by 0.8% per year since 2015 and declined by 5% in 2020. In the group of lower income countries, emissions had been increasing by 4.5% per year since 2015, and decreased by 9% in 2020.

Looking to the post-COVID-19 era, the authors suggest that global reductions of 1–2 GtCO2 per year will be needed throughout the 2020s and beyond in order to limit warming to around 1.5°C and well below 2°C, in line with the Paris Agreement. They caution that decreases in emissions owing to temporary COVID-19 restrictions alone will not result in long-term reductions. In order to sustain decreases in global emissions while supporting economic recovery, strategies such as the large scale deployment of renewable energy and disinvestment in fossil-fuel infrastructure worldwide will be necessary, the authors conclude.

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Expert Reaction

These comments have been collated by the Science Media Centre to provide a variety of expert perspectives on this issue. Feel free to use these quotes in your stories. Views expressed are the personal opinions of the experts named. They do not represent the views of the SMC or any other organisation unless specifically stated.

Dr Pep Canadell, CSIRO Research Scientist, and Executive Director of the Global Carbon Project

Global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels dropped to unprecedented levels in 2020. However, our new analysis shows that 64 countries had already declining emissions before the pandemic (2015-2019).

For most of these countries, particularly in advanced economies, emissions reductions were due to structural changes toward low carbon energies, and for a few was due to the wrong reasons such as economic difficulties. Most notable per year reductions were in the UK (3.6%), Denmark (2.8%), Japan (2%), US (0.7%).

Other advance economies showed increased fossil CO2 emissions during that period (1% Australia, 0.1% Canada, 0.1% New Zealand). Emissions from China grew by 0.4% per year.

Sixty-four countries together were responsible for a decline of 160 million tonnes of CO2 per year, an amount that is about 1/10 of what IPCC calls globally to stabilize the climate to no more than 2C from the pre-industrial levels.

Both, more stringent mitigation efforts are required while support for the 150 other countries whose emissions are increasing is needed. The opportunity presented by the pre-covid country emission declines, the big drop in emissions due to the pandemic, and the major infrastructure investment as part of the economic recovery plan continues to provide a unique opportunity to accelerate progress towards decarbonization, an opportunity not fully realized in most countries.

Last updated: 02 Mar 2021 12:22pm
Declared conflicts of interest:
Pep is an author on this research.

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