The Hunter and mid-north NSW coast floods occurred on already saturated catchments. A key factor of the responsible rain system was the slow movement of the upper low-pressure circulation over eastern NSW acting on the persistent moisture in feed below from the low-pressure trough off the NSW coast. 

This pattern of slow movement of upper low-pressure systems has been a key feature of similar rain systems affecting eastern Australia in recent years. During April to October/November when the subtropical jet and polar jet are present, their interaction in moving the upper-level circulations slowly northeast or east over eastern Australia is key to coastal flooding rain events when moisture is feeding in from the ocean beneath.

The shocking current flood event in the Hunter River Basin, NSW, provides compelling evidence of the growing influence of climate change on regional rainfall patterns. We are clearly witnessing a marked increase in both the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events, highlighting the urgent need to reassess how we understand and manage flood risks. These events demonstrate that our understanding of flood probability—based on past hydrological studies—is no longer adequate in the face of present-day climate realities. There is an immediate need for a paradigm shift: from reactive responses to proactive, sustainable flood mitigation strategies.

This shift is crucial to prevent—or at the very least, mitigate—the impacts of future disasters of similar scale. In particular, state governments and planning authorities must transition toward implementing resilient, long-term natural flood management strategies. When thoughtfully combined with engineered systems, these hybrid approaches offer a balanced, cost-effective means to mitigate flood impacts while enhancing ecological value. It is time to act decisively, to significantly invest in solutions that are both adaptive to a changing climate and sustainable for the future.

Drowning is the leading cause of death during times of flood. With one confirmed death and three missing it’s imperative that people heed warnings, particularly not entering floodwaters on foot or driving into floodwaters. 

In a situation such as the current flooding in NSW, local first responders face a difficult dilemma: prioritising their commitment to their communities and the safety of the public while also needing to protect their own families and homes who may also be at risk. This dilemma can further add to the already significant mental health impact that working as a first responder can have.

 Research shows our first responders are more likely to be diagnosed with a mental health condition than the overall Australian population. They are more than twice as likely to think about suicide, and three times as likely to have a suicide plan. First responders are also impacted by cumulative trauma exposure, potentially leading to a range of mental health challenges like post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), compassion fatigue, and depression. 

The constant exposure to traumatic events can erode their ability to cope and lead to feelings of exhaustion, emotional numbness, and a diminished sense of resilience. For local first responders currently helping flood-effected communities in NSW, focusing on making small, short-term decisions can help reduce the overwhelm and allow for better mental health management. 

Heavy rain continues along the New South Wales Mid North Coast, with flooding impacting major regional Centres including Taree, Port Macquarie and Kempsey. Communities in this region have a long history of flooding, including over recent years. Flooding being experienced along the Manning River at Taree has broken the previous record of 1929 and has an estimated frequency of occurrence of one in 500 years on average. Hundreds of homes and businesses have likely been flooded, with thousands of people impacted. Further river rises throughout the region are possible today, with flooding likely to continue for several days.

There have been hundreds of rescues. Research shows that often people do not follow warnings from emergency services to evacuate. Barriers to evacuation include perceptions that flooding may not pose a risk, that individuals have nowhere to evacuate to and that people must stay behind to care for pets and animals. Rescues also frequently result from people entering floodwater in vehicles. This is very dangerous and should not be attempted.

Though it is too early to know the extent that climate change has contributed to the extreme rainfalls, we do know that under a warmer climate, our atmosphere holds more water and that heavy rain events are more likely. This event again highlights the importance of investment in flood mitigation to reduce impacts on existing properties and risk-based urban planning policies to avoid future development in areas at high risk of flooding.

Social media isn’t just about communication—it’s about connection. Social media allows communities to share real-time information, support each other emotionally, and advocate for action during some of the most challenging moments.  
  
During natural disasters, social media is a powerful tool that allows people to stay connected and informed. In the lead up to an event, communities can monitor evolving conditions and share weather updates. Throughout an event, they can seek safety information and share firsthand reports. After the event, they can use social media to coordinate recovery efforts, share health and safety guidance, raise funds and call for political accountability on issues such as climate change.  
  
People want to be heard, supported, and connected. Social media provides a platform for all three—but it must be used responsibly.

People should be very wary of wading into flood waters if they can avoid it. Flood waters are often highly contaminated with disease-causing germs from human and animal faecal wastes. Urban sewage systems often overflow in times of wet weather and flooding. Be particularly careful if you have cuts or grazes. They could allow infection.
  
Similarly, town drinking water can become contaminated. I recommend filling containers with clean drinking water whilst it is available. Just in case!

The problem with natural resource management in Australia is the fragmentation both within and between States. It is simply not possible to manage our environment with different state laws having different rules.

Within NSW, in particular, there has been a history of building on floodplains. Now, because of climate change, the variability of our climate has increased, so the extent of flooding of rural and urban areas will increase. We need an integration of land use and water planning at the state level - a governance model that will ensure that the rules are the same in each state but leave some discretion in application, not perverse incentives as exist now.

Members of the community can play an important role in supporting pregnant women and families with babies and toddlers in disasters. Friends and family who have a home that is safe in a disaster can offer it as a place of evacuation. In evacuation centres, community members and emergency responders should check in with parents, especially mothers who have evacuated on their own with small children, and ask if they have everything that they need.

Providing a separate and supported space in evacuation centres for pregnant women and families with very young children can also help to keep them safe. Following disasters, it can be difficult for parents, especially mothers, to look after themselves and their young children. This is especially the case after floods when clean-up can be overwhelming. The impact on the development of babies and toddlers can be significant and long-felt. Family members, friends and community organisations need to work together to support new mothers.

As we see, yet again, devastating flooding, water over rooftops, and people being evacuated, the word ‘unprecedented’ becomes meaningless for how Australian society and policymakers need to respond to these increasingly prevalent events. In the aftermath, we need to make sure we move from recovery (getting people back in their homes or some temporary accommodation) to resilient reconstruction and pre-disaster mitigation.

We need to make sure any insurance payments are able to work with other funds to make houses that will be more flood resilient, or to support relocation. The big opportunities for Australia from these events are learning how to prevent future loss to homes and communities and implementing that BEFORE another flood comes. Let’s embrace the clean up as a chance to become more resilient.

Flooding can increase the risk of waterborne diseases. Overflow of sewage drives up numbers of coliform bacteria, such as E coli and enteric viruses. Increased nutrients from runoff can also cause blooms of harmful bacteria such as Vibrio. Increased breeding areas for mosquitoes also increases the risk of mosquito-borne viruses. Whilst there is no evidence of melioidosis endemic to NSW, people should avoid floodwaters wherever possible.

Up to 300 mm of rain has fallen on already saturated Mid-North Coast and Hunter catchments, pushing rivers to record heights. Meanwhile, vast areas of South Australia, western Victoria, Tasmania and much of Western Australia are locked in severe drought. This disparity is a feature of the massive size of the Australian continent and the localised nature of storms and rainfall.

From an ecological perspective, storms like this scour soils, nutrients, and contaminants into our rivers and estuaries, changing the ecosystem balance, decreasing water quality, and raising the risk of massive damage to fisheries and coastal habitat. Yet, they can also recharge wetlands, flush salt from floodplains and transport carbon that rebuilds coastal landscapes. Managing both drought and deluge demands better early-warning systems and room for rivers to shift safely under a changing climate.

It was predictable, at least in terms of much heightened risk. We should expect such instances at this stage of the decay of a weak La Niña event in the Pacific (see NSW coast as forecast for total rain April to June this year – forecast at end of March: 90% chance of well above normal rain).