Catastrophic ice cliff failure unlikely to destroy Thwaites Glacier, but climate change is still a threat

Embargoed until: Publicly released: 2024-08-23 08:13

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The Thwaites Glacier in Antarctica is the one experts are most worried about, but new modelling shows the so-called 'Doomsday Glacier' is unlikely to experience a feared domino-like rapid collapse specifically through ice shelf failure. The theory of 'marine ice cliff instability' suggested that collapse of the glacier's ice shelf would leave the front of the glacier as an 'ice cliff' too tall to be stable, and lead to a runaway series of ice cliff collapses. New 'worst-case scenario' models show, however, that ice shelf collapse would make the glacier move faster, making the exposed glacier front thin enough to remain stable. The study authors stress that their findings don't mean the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is stable; other mechanisms could still cause rapid ice retreat and sea level rise.