Around 1 in 127 people globally is on the autism spectrum

Embargoed until: Publicly released: 2024-12-20 10:30

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An estimated 61.8 million people, or around 1 in 127 people are on the autism spectrum, according to the latest Australian -led research using 2021 data. This figure is substantially higher than the previous estimate of around 1 in 271 people, based on 2019 data, but the authors say that is mainly due to them changing their approach to exclude studies that probably underestimated the rates of autism. The study also found that autism spectrum disorder (ASD) was most common in people younger than 20 years old, where it ranked within the top 10 causes of non-fatal health burden, emphasising the need for early detection and developmental support for people on the autism spectrum.

Media release

From: The Lancet

The Lancet Psychiatry: One in 127 people on the autism spectrum globally in 2021, latest estimates suggest

One in every 127 people (61.8 million individuals) were estimated to be on the autism spectrum globally in 2021, according to a new study from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) 2021 published in The Lancet Psychiatry. The study also found that autism spectrum disorder (ASD) was most common in people younger than 20 years old, where it ranked within the top 10 causes of non-fatal health burden, emphasising the need for early detection and developmental support for people on the autism spectrum.

The study's estimation that the global prevalence of ASD in 2021 was 788.3 per 100,000 people (one in 127 people) was substantially higher than 369 per 100,000 people (one in 271 people) estimated by GBD 2019. The authors explain that this difference is mainly due to changes in how the prevalence was estimated by GBD, with the exclusion of studies relying on identifying cases by using existing health records (e.g., registries or administrative prevalence estimates) that likely previously underestimated the prevalence of the autism spectrum. The authors say the revised estimation process and resulting prevalence and health burden estimates of ASD from GBD 2021 have important implications for future research, healthcare provision, and policy planning that better address the unique needs of all autistic individuals throughout their lives.

ASD is a developmental condition characterised by persistent difficulties in social communication and interaction, challenges related to sensory processing, repetitive behaviours, interests, or activities, and in some instances intellectual disability, all of which occur at varying levels of severity. Early diagnosis and intervention can improve outcomes for people on the autism spectrum, although many do not receive early support. Accurate prevalence estimates are essential for strategic service planning and resource allocation.

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conference: The Lancet Psychiatry

Research:Paper

Organisation/s: The University of Queensland, The University of Sydney, The University of New South Wales, University of Technology Sydney (UTS), The University of Adelaide, University of South Australia, Curtin University, Macquarie University, La Trobe University, Monash University, Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, USA

Funder: DFS, HEE, PAM, JS, HAW, and AJF are affiliated with the Queensland Centre for Mental Health Research which receives core funding from the Department of Health, Queensland Government. GBD is funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

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