When China's zero COVID-19 policy ended death rates may have spiked far higher than official estimates

Embargoed until: Publicly released: 2023-08-25 01:00

International

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In the two months after China's zero COVID-19 policy ended in December 2022, there were an estimated 1.87 million excess deaths, according to new research from the US. The researchers used published obituary data from three universities in China and search engine data to estimate the excess deaths. The authors say their estimated number of excess deaths far exceeds official Chinese government estimates of 60,000, although the pattern of excess deaths was consistent with Chinese government reports that COVID-19 related hospitalisations and deaths in hospitals hit their peak at the end of December 2022. Excess deaths predominantly occurred among older individuals and were observed in all provinces in China.

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From: JAMA

Excess All-Cause Mortality in China After Ending the Zero COVID Policy

JAMA Network Open
Original Investigation

About JAMA Network Open: JAMA Network Open is an online-only open access general medical journal from the JAMA Network. On weekdays, the journal publishes peer-reviewed clinical research and commentary in more than 40 medical and health subject areas. Every article is free online from the day of publication.

About The Study: In this study across all regions in mainland China, an estimated 1.87 million excess deaths occurred among individuals 30 years and older during the first two months after the end of China’s zero COVID policy, a proactive strategy that deploys mass testing and strict quarantine measures to stamp out any outbreak before it can spread.

Authors: Hong Xiao, Ph.D., and Joseph M. Unger, Ph.D., M.S., of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle, are the corresponding authors.

(doi:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2023.30877)

Editor’s Note: Please see the article for additional information, including other authors, author contributions and affiliations, conflict of interest and financial disclosures, and funding and support.

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conference: JAMA Network Open

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Organisation/s: Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, USA

Funder: Research reported in this publication was supported by the Public Health Sciences Division of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center

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