News release

From: Australian and New Zealand Council for fire and emergency services (AFAC)

AFAC Seasonal Bushfire Outlook Winter 2026: Australia’s national picture of fire potential
AFAC has released Australia’s national bushfire outlook for winter with fire authorities predicting an increased risk of fire across the northern parts of the Great Sandy Desert and surrounds in Western Australia (WA), and parts of central and northern New South Wales (NSW).
Over the southeast, the potential for drier and warmer than normal conditions have authorities watching fuels closely. Without significant rainfall, there is potential for increased fire activity later in the year.
In WA, risk of fire is expected to be mostly average, with increased risk in parts of Dampierland, the northern Great Sandy Desert and the Ord Victoria Plain as the dry season progresses.
Above normal fire potential is expected in drought-affected areas of central and northern NSW later in winter, driven by unusually hot and dry autumn conditions that have expanded drought across much of the state.
AFAC CEO Rob Webb said: “Contrasting but equally important bushfire risks are evident across NSW and WA. Ongoing dry conditions continue to drive concern in NSW, while elevated grass fuel loads following a wet season are increasing risk in northern WA, highlighting Australia's vast landscape and the importance of being prepared for bushfire year-round."

“Communities are encouraged to be vigilant, even in areas of Australia that show a normal risk of fire this season. A dry winter could signal an early start to the bushfire period so stay connected to advice from your local fire services.”
The areas marked in red on the map represent an increased risk of fire, largely driven by below average rainfall and dry conditions.
The Seasonal Outlook is the culmination of a complex analysis by expert fire specialists across Australia, and climate prediction and fire weather experts from the Bureau of Meteorology.

Media interviews with AFAC representatives can be arranged on request. AFAC can facilitate media requests with the Bureau of Meteorology and fire authorities as required. For further information on specific state and territory fire potential, media should contact the jurisdictional fire authority directly.