Media release

From: Springer Nature

Health: Climate adaptations potentially reduced European heat deaths in 2023

Over 47,000 heat-related deaths may have occurred in Europe in the year 2023, a modelling study published in Nature Medicine suggests. However, this total could have been up to 80% higher in the absence of present-century societal adaptations to rising temperatures.

The year 2023 was the warmest globally on record and the second warmest in Europe. Heat waves pose health threats to high-risk populations, and an awareness of these health threats has led to the implementation of heat-prevention plans, which include preparedness and response strategies and potential interventions. However, their effectiveness is unclear.

Elisa Gallo and colleagues used mortality records representing 96 million counts of deaths from the European Statistical Office (Eurostat) to estimate the heat-related mortality burden in 2023 across 35 European countries. The authors suggest that 47,312 heat-related deaths may have occurred between May 29 and October 1, 2023, which is the second-highest mortality burden since 2015, surpassed only by 2022. They estimate that the largest number of heat-related deaths occurred in southern Europe, including Greece, Bulgaria, Italy, Cyprus, Spain and Portugal. Additionally, the authors modelled what the impact of heat-related mortality in 2023 could have been without present-century climate-adaptation measures, such as improvements in healthcare, social protection and life style, progress in occupational health and building conditions, preparedness efforts, increased awareness of risks, and more effective communication and early warning strategies. They suggest that heat-related mortality in 2023 could have been 80% higher in the general population, and in people 80 years of age and older, it could have been over 100% higher, without current societal adaptations.

The authors conclude that their findings highlight the importance of present-century adaptions in preventing a higher heat-related death toll in 2023. However, they note that more effective strategies aimed at reducing the mortality burden of future, warmer summers should be implemented alongside mitigation efforts from governments to avoid reaching temperature thresholds.