Media release

From: CSIRO

Missing the target: Study predicts sharp decline in Australians’ diets by 2030

Summary sentence: Aussies are falling short of key national health targets, according to scientists who have used an innovative technique to forecast future dietary trends.

New research from CSIRO, Australia’s national science agency, shows Australians' eating habits are on a downward spiral and without significant intervention the nation will fall dramatically short of its ambitious 2030 health targets.

Findings from the new study, published today in the Australian and New Zealand Journal of Public Health, predict the consumption of discretionary foods to surge, fruit intake will decline, and vegetables will remain well below recommendations over the next five years.

Key findings show:

• Discretionary food consumption (ultra processed foods and sugary drinks) will soar by 18 per cent by 2030.
• Fruit consumption will drop by nearly 10 per cent.
• Vegetable intake will remain stagnant at well below recommended levels.
• Young adults (18-30) are the only age group showing some positive trends, yet still consume excessive amounts of discretionary foods.

The research also indicated some concerning trends for older Australians, with those over 71 showing the steepest projected decline in fruit consumption – a 14.7 per cent drop by 2030.

Using predictive modelling techniques, CSIRO researchers analysed nine years of data from over 275,000 Australian adults to forecast future dietary trends and compare against the national targets.

Dr Gilly Hendrie, Senior CSIRO Research Scientist said this innovative approach allows researchers to anticipate and address potential public health challenges before they occur, marking a significant advance in preventive health planning.

"Predictive modelling gives us a powerful early warning system," Dr Hendrie said.

"Rather than waiting to see the impact of poor dietary habits, we can now identify concerning trends and intervene before they become major public health issues."

The findings come as Australia aims to achieve nutrition targets of:

• Two servings of fruit per day
• Five servings of vegetables per day
• Reducing discretionary foods to less than 20 per cent of total energy intake

The targets are part of Australia's National Preventive Health Strategy (2021-2030), which identifies poor diet as a key risk factor for chronic diseases, as well as accounting for significant healthcare costs and reduced quality of life.

Improving access to and consumption of healthy diets is one of the Strategy's seven key focus areas, highlighting the critical role of nutrition in preventing chronic disease and supporting long-term public health.

"The gap between our current dietary trajectory and our national health targets is widening," Dr Hendrie said.

"We have five years to get back on track with our diets and reverse these concerning trends.”