Some predictions of future coral bleaching on the GBR may be overestimates

Embargoed until: Publicly released: 2025-01-23 21:00

Australia; QLD

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Aussie researchers say some estimates of future coral reef bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef may be overestimates, because they use a measure called 'degree heating months' (DHM), which is based on reworking another measure, 'degree heating weeks' (DHW). They calculated future heat stress using both measures and found a 33 - 1,584% difference between the results. Looking at coral cover projections between 2030 and 2050, they found using DHW resulted in an estimate of surviving cover that was double that seen when using DHM. Using DHM to estimate future coral cover may be misleading and need a rethink, they conclude.