Redesigning our cities could help stop diseases spreading

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US and Mexican scientists say city design plays an important role in how infectious diseases spread. They looked at neighbourhood-level census data for Guadalajara, a city in western Mexico, and found that daily patterns of people's movements affect a disease's basic reproduction number R0, which tells us how quickly it is spreading. If lots of people tend to gather in the same spots at the same times, infectious diseases spread more quickly, they say. We could redesign our cities to limit the spread of future outbreaks, they suggest, or design public health strategies that target those who are most vulnerable.

Media release

From: The Royal Society

Understanding the role of urban design in disease spreading

Environmental, social and economic factors give rise to health inequalities among the inhabitants of a city. To understand the relationship between urban characteristics and health, we developed a mathematical framework that introduces urban geography and mobility in simulations of infectious disease spreading. In a set of experiments meant to explore the role of urban design as a driver of health inequality, we show that the agglomeration of economic activities can control the size and timing of epidemics. Moreover, we find that activity hotspots give rise to predictable patterns in the spread of disease, which suggests that our approach can be used to design public health strategies that target those who are most vulnerable. 

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conference:
Proceedings of the Royal Society A
Research:Paper
Organisation/s: University of California, San Diego, USA
Funder: Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnología.
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