Media release

From: Springer Nature

Nearly two thirds of those who responded to a Nature survey of IPCC authors said that they expect the world will warm by at least 3 °C by the end of the century. The survey, featuring answers from about 40% of the group (92 scientists), is reported in a Feature this week and suggests scepticism from leading climate change scientists that governments will markedly slow the pace of global warming, despite promises made by global leaders in the 2015 Paris climate agreement.

The latest IPCC climate-science report, approved by 195 governments in August, concluded that fossil fuel emissions are driving unprecedented planetary changes, threatening both people and the ecosystems that humans rely on for food and other resources. Nature conducted an anonymous survey of 233 authors who are part of the IPCC working group charged with assessing the causes and extent of climate change and received responses from 92 scientists — nearly 40% of the group. Those who took part did so in a personal capacity, not as representatives of the IPCC.

60% of the respondents said that they expect the world will warm by at least 3 °C by the end of the century, relative to pre-industrial times. 88% said they think the world is experiencing a ‘climate crisis’, and nearly as many said they expected to see catastrophic impacts of climate change in their lifetimes. Just under half responded that global warming has caused them to reconsider major life decisions, such as where to live and whether to have children, while more than 60% said that they experience anxiety, grief or other distress because of concerns over climate change. However, the survey also found signs of optimism: more than 20% of the scientists said they expect nations to limit global warming to 2 °C or less, and 4% said the world may meet the target of limiting warming to 1.5 °C.

Please note that this press release refers to a news feature in Nature, not a Nature research paper or article.

Note: The author Jeff Tollefson reports for Nature from New York. Survey conducted by Richard Monastersky. Additional reporting by Mackenzie White.