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Australia; VIC
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Peer-reviewed / Modelling study / People
The Lancet Rheumatology: Over five million Australians projected to have arthritis in 2040, modelling study suggests
Rates of arthritis in Australia are projected to increase by a third by 2040, suggests a modelling study published in The Lancet Rheumatology. The model projects approximately 5.4 million Australians will have arthritis in 2040, 1.3 million (31%) more than the estimated number of cases to occur in 2025. Accordingly, annual health system spending on osteoarthritis (a specific type of arthritis that causes cartilage to break down in the joints) and rheumatoid arthritis is forecast to exceed AUD 11.9 billion by 2040, if current spending levels, estimated at AUD 1,918 per person with arthritis and AUD 2,100 per person with osteoarthritis per year, continue.
Arthritis poses a major and ongoing public health challenge for many countries. As there is no cure for arthritis and a lack of effective prevention strategies, estimating how many people will likely be living with arthritis is essential for planning future health service needs. The model used in this study accounted for population growth and ageing but the authors acknowledge they were unable to account for potential future changes in the national prevalence of arthritis impacted by factors such as socioeconomic and environmental factors, smoking, lifestyle factors, changes in treatment and disease awareness.
The modelling study also estimates that people of working age will be increasingly impacted by arthritis in 2040, with the number of people with arthritis aged 45-64 years potentially increasing from 1.5 million in 2025 to almost 1.8 million in 2040. Given the known impacts of arthritis on both paid and unpaid work, the authors suggest this could have major implications for national workforce participation and work productivity.
Another notable trend was that more females (19.9%) are forecast to have arthritis than males (13.6%) in 2040. While this applied to all conditions they examined, it was particularly notable for osteoarthritis where the number of females is forecast to be almost 80% higher than the number of males.
The authors say that estimating the different risks in men and women at different ages can be used to support arthritis advocacy efforts and underscore the importance of well-resourced health services that can capably deliver timely, high-value care to a growing number of people with arthritis.
