News release

From:

The Hon. Chris Bowen MP, Minister for Climate Change and Energy
Senator the Hon. Tim Ayres, Minister for Science
The Hon. Kristy McBain MP, Minister for Emergency Management
Senator the Hon. Murray Watt, Minister for the Environment and Water
The Hon. Dr Andrew Charlton MP, Assistant Minister for Science, Technology and the Digital Economy
The Hon. Josh Wilson MP, Assistant Minister for Climate Change and Energy

Dear Ministers,

Without urgent Ministerial intervention, Australia faces the very real prospect of leading international climate negotiations at COP31 while at the same time failing to contribute climate projections to the next round of the international climate modelling effort that informs the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments and global climate policy.

We write to you as members of the Scientific Advisory Committee of the Australian Community Climate and Earth Systems Simulator National Research Infrastructure (ACCESS-NRI). ACCESS-NRI provides technical support and development for the Climate and Earth System Models that Australia contributes to the international Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) and that underpin the work of the IPCC.

While ACCESS-NRI supports and develops these models, it is not mandated or resourced to run the models and produce climate projections. There is currently no organisation that is mandated and resourced to produce these climate projections. Climate projections need to be mandated. Ideally, Australia should have a government agency – such as CSIRO – that is mandated and resourced to produce the most accurate and fit-for-purpose climate information for Australian citizens and enterprises.

CSIRO has historically produced Australia’s climate projections. However, recent statements by CSIRO leadership indicate that one third of the climate modelling team at CSIRO will soon be made redundant. These job cuts will significantly degrade Australia’s climate modelling capability and impair our capacity to produce new climate projections. Researchers within the university sector do not have the resources required to produce these climate projections.

Climate projections are by necessity global, but model development teams understandably focus on reducing model errors and biases in their own region. To have climate projections that treat Australia and the Southern Hemisphere as more than an afterthought, Australia must lead that work.

Mandatory climate-related financial disclosures rely on accurate climate projections to identify climate-related risks and opportunities. Reporting entities require access to high-quality climate projections to identify and manage climate risks. It would be possible for these reporting entities to use alternative climate projections, but the potential impact of model biases and errors is substantial. Australian company directors and board members require and expect access to the highest quality climate projections, tailored for the Australian region, when executing their fiduciary responsibilities.

Climate risk information is only as reliable as the modelling infrastructure that underpins it. Neglecting Australian climate modelling capability would be like continuing to use GPS after deciding to stop maintaining the satellites that make it work. Without sustained local investment and expertise, accuracy and trustworthiness inevitably suffer.

Yours sincerely,

Dr Edward Doddridge
Dr Adele Morrison
Dr David Hutchinson
Dr Sonya Fiddes
Dr Jorge Luis Galvez Vallejo
Dr Yi Huang