Sign In
International
News release
From:
Tool can reliably predict an individual’s risk of serious muscle side effects from statins, study suggests
A model incorporating 22 risk factors can reliably estimate the risk of an individual developing a serious muscle disorder as a potential side effect of statin use, suggests a study published in The Lancet Digital Health journal. The predicted risk of serious muscle disorders in most individuals was very low.
Widespread concerns about potential side effects of statins, especially muscle-related problems [1], have become a barrier to statin use in the prevention of cardiovascular disease. Predicting the personal risk of serious muscle disorder could improve statin treatment decision making for patients.
The model incorporated data from over 1.75 million individuals (men aged 50 years or older and women aged 60 years or older) registered with GP surgeries in England. It used 22 factors including age, sex, ethnicity, alcohol consumption, smoking status, BMI, presence of comorbidities and medications, including statins, to predict the personalised risk of hospital admission or death with a diagnosis of muscle disorder over the following one, five and 10 years. The model was checked in a further 3.9 million individuals.
The model was then checked in a further 3.9 million individuals in England and showed good prediction performance. Within this validation cohort the tool identified over 98% of the 1.8 million people eligible for statin treatment as being at low risk of serious muscle disorders (ie. Having a 10-year risk of below 10%), while over 60% of them remained untreated, despite some individuals presenting a very high cardiovascular disease risk.
The authors say this model could be used by GPs and patients to support treatment decision making, hopefully improving statin uptake and adherence to achieve better cardiovascular disease prevention.
