Expert Reaction

EXPERT REACTION: UK passes 40°C 'milestone' and Europe burns

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The UK has crossed the 40°C 'milestone' for the first time in recorded history, and London Mayor Sadiq Khan said the heatwave was causing a "huge surge" in the number of fires in the city. The heatwaves are not just localised to the UK, though. The rest of Europe is reporting sweltering temperatures, which have led to thousands of deaths across the continent. Below, Australian experts respond to the searing temperatures.

Expert Reaction

These comments have been collated by the Science Media Centre to provide a variety of expert perspectives on this issue. Feel free to use these quotes in your stories. Views expressed are the personal opinions of the experts named. They do not represent the views of the SMC or any other organisation unless specifically stated.

Dr Rachael Nolan is from the Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment at Western Sydney University

In many places around the world we are seeing wildfires occurring in places that don’t usually see fire. This is driven by climate change pushing up temperatures and drying out fuel. During heatwaves, high temperatures and low humidity causes vegetation to dry out, leaving areas primed for fire. Fires can then spread quickly when there is an ignition. This is what we are seeing in the UK at the moment. We are also seeing fires in the Mediterranean Basin (Portugal, Spain, France). Although fires in this region are not unusual, they are also occurring at the moment due to the heatwave.

Last updated:  20 Jul 2022 3:15pm
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Professor Lauren Rickards is from the the School of Global, Urban and Social Studies, Interim Director of the Urban Futures ECP and co-leader of the Climate Change Transformations research program at RMIT University

If we do not mitigate climate change, average and extreme temperatures will continue to increase, meaning that more and more of us and our shared systems will hit physical limits and collapse. Adaptation and mitigation are both urgently needed.

Prolonged and extreme hot weather, as we are seeing in the UK, disrupts and degrades the infrastructure and technologies we rely on, including air-conditioning, refrigeration and electricity systems and everything that relies on them, including our food supplies.

Dealing with this crisis requires more than short-term emergency measures. Adaptations need to be built into cities quite literally, ensuring that everyone benefits and that we carefully protect our infrastructural and management systems so that impacts do not cascade far afield.

Combined with the way concrete and asphalt absorbs heat and stays hot, the waste heat generated by machines is one of many factors cities easily overheat. The existence of these non-weather related factors means that that there are many ways we can cool our environments in the near and medium term.

Neighbourhoods with good tree cover and open water can be many degrees cooler than those without. At the building scale, light colours, insulation, ventilation and air-conditioning all determine how liveable and workable spaces are.

Last updated:  20 Jul 2022 3:09pm
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Professor Darryn McEvoy is a Research Professor in Urban Resilience and Climate Adaptation from the  School of Engineering at RMIT University

Climate science has projected an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme events, and the heat and fires currently devastating areas of Europe can be considered a warning sign of things to come. What is considered extreme now is likely to be more commonplace in future years.

The heat impacting Europe re-emphasises the need to not only mitigate greenhouse gas emissions as a matter of urgency by reducing our dependence on fossil fuels and moving to 'net zero', but also to adapt our urban environments for what, inevitably, will be a hotter future.

Adaptation of our towns and cities requires city-level actions to address the urban heat island through responses such as urban greening, as well as at the building scale, with existing buildings needing to be retro-fitted to allow people, particularly the elderly, to remain cool during periods of extreme heat. As is being witnessed, the UK's building stock is not designed or built for heat.

Last updated:  20 Jul 2022 4:06pm
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Associate Professor Sebastian Pfautsch is a researcher in Urban Planning and Management from Western Sydney University

The unfolding heat crisis in western Europe is much more deadly than heatwaves in Australia. Why? In Australia, we had years to adapt essential services, infrastructure, and importantly, our own behaviour. One example: In the UK, a total fire ban during extreme heat did not exist and the public did not know how vicious open fire can become during a heatwave. Total fire bans are a regular event in Australia. The events in Portugal, Spain, France, the UK, and the Netherlands, but also those earlier this year in India, Pakistan, China, and Japan highlight how important it will be that organisations responsible for public health and disaster management begin a global conversation around the management of extreme heat. We need to learn quickly from each other. Australia has a lot of experience to offer that can help build resilience in those countries that now realise they need to better prepare for extreme heat events.

Last updated:  20 Jul 2022 2:03pm
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Dr Arnagretta Hunter is a physician and cardiologist and is the Human Futures Fellow at ANU.

The devastating heat waves across Europe and the UK are another example of the impact on health and wellbeing of climate change-driven extreme weather events.  The health impacts of the changing climate are significant - with direct impacts from heat, fire, floods - but also health impacts from infrastructure and supply chain disruption, from housing and accommodation that is not prepared for these sorts of events. Mental health impacts can be long lasting.

These events are occurring today at just over 1.1°C of global temperature rise.  As the climate changes, we expect an increase in the frequency and severity of extreme weather events.  This has already affected the health and wellbeing of so many around the world, and global climate change-related morbidity and mortality will grow in the years ahead.  How our communities might prepare for the 1.5 - 1.7°C expected in the decades ahead is the challenge of our lifetime.

Attention is needed for both rapid mitigation - rapidly reducing carbon and greenhouse gas pollution - but also serious investment in understanding the challenge of adaptation to a climate that will continue to heat over the decades ahead.  How can we protect people, places and our planet?  As recent years have shown us, we need both science and imagination to prepare for unprecedented events.  Investing time and resources in preparing for future challenges is of paramount importance today.

Last updated:  20 Jul 2022 2:01pm
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Dr Sharon Campbell is a Postdoctoral Research Fellow at the Environmental Health Research Unit from the Menzies Institute for Medical Research at the University of Tasmania

Only two years since UK researchers posed the question ‘is 40°C in our future?’, we see an unfolding heatwave and health disaster playing out before our eyes. Driven by human-induced climate change, extreme and record-breaking temperatures have hit Australia, the United States and now Europe across successive summers.
 
A perfect storm of social, cultural and political factors combine to make this event a human and environmental disaster. The UK has a health system already at breaking point, a government distracted by leadership battles, and an emergency-fatigued population just wanting to have a summer of fun.
 
What does this mean for Australia? While the UK prepares for 40°C, Australia needs to actively prepare for 50°C in major population centres like Western Sydney. This takes government leadership and community understanding. In Australia we have seen a shift to greater recognition of these risks with a recent change in Federal Government. This needs to be urgently followed by greater investment in research, adaptation initiatives and education. Alongside these efforts, there must be an immediate and exceptional reduction in emissions to reduce the future burden.

Last updated:  20 Jul 2022 1:59pm
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Richard Woods is a private wildfire consultant and an Adjunct Associate Lecturer in Wildfire Investigation for Charles Sturt University. He was Operations Manager for the ACT Rural Fire Service in Canberra but has now retired.

The current spate of Wildfires in Europe is causing fire services' resources to be stretched, as the heatwave creates ideal conditions for intense wildfire behaviour. The cause of these fires is yet to be confirmed, however, there are common causes that are internationally recognised. Accurate identification of the cause of wildfires is vital to drive prevention measures.

Last updated:  20 Jul 2022 1:57pm
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Peter Newman is the Professor of Sustainability at Curtin University

London and other UK cities are not global leaders in biophilic urbanism, but perhaps now it's on their agenda. Biophilic urbanism not only enables parks and street trees (traditional) but landscaping buildings. Green walls and green roofs are cooling cities and providing multiple benefits in health and wellbeing as well as biodiversity. Singapore is the global leader and London may need to consider a new agenda for its famous skyline and urban fabric.

Last updated:  20 Jul 2022 1:57pm
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Dr Paul Valent is Retired President of Australasian Society for Traumatic Stress Studies and retired President of Child Survivors of the Holocaust (Melbourne)

The UK has crossed the 40°C ‘milestone’ for the first time in recorded history. We are inundated by images of forests and houses burning in the UK and elsewhere in Europe.

Locally, we alternate between fire and flood, and our species are dying. The COVID-19 pandemic has flared up with an ever-increasing death toll. And China threatens.

Our ex-PM is phlegmatic because he and his group have a reservation in heaven.

For the rest of us, this is a time for cool heads. Sometimes stresses accumulate. We must deal with each on its merits

This is not a time for despair. It is time for repair.

Last updated:  20 Jul 2022 1:55pm
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Professor Ollie Jay is Director of the Heat and Health Incubator at the University of Sydney

There is a lot of advice being circulated on social and mainstream media about how to keep cool as the UK and Europe face soaring heatwave conditions. Most of this advice is harmless but also pretty useless. In a recent research paper in the leading medical journal The Lancet, we summarised the latest scientific evidence on what really does work. This is available in an open access infographic that should be circulated widely to assist people, particularly the most vulnerable such as the elderly, on readily accessible ways to keep cool and avoid heat stress.

Last updated:  20 Jul 2022 1:54pm
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Dr Gavin Pereira is a Professor of Epidemiology and Biostatistics at Curtin University

Under a changing climate, episodes of extreme heat, such as the episode observed in the UK, will become more common and more severe in terms of duration and intensity. Episodes like this might be perceived as unusual to the public but are not unexpected in the scientific community.

Unfortunately, it is only during such episodes that the volume of the climate action conversation is raised. We should take action now to mitigate and adapt, remain vigilant, be aware that the temperature increase over the norm may be just as important to health as the absolute temperature level.

Finally, we should remain aware that populations in lower income countries are the most vulnerable. If the health consequences of extreme heat events appear severe in a high-income country, the severity is likely to be several-fold worse in settings where the toll of poverty and morbidity is already high.

Last updated:  20 Jul 2022 1:52pm
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Delene Weber is a Professor of Environmental Science at the University of South Australia

Climate change is very real. We need to look at all the tools we have to address fire management, and in Australia, that should include cultural burning. The West Arnhem Land Fire Abatement (WALFA) Project is a fantastic example of how you can burn early and gain carbon credits. While that savanna burning program might not work in the south of the country, much of the work promoted by the Firesticks Alliance will. As well as healing country and people, it will reduce fuel accumulation.

Last updated:  07 Aug 2023 12:20pm
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Associate Professor Bill Bateman is from the School of Molecular and Life Sciences at Curtin University

Wildlife will suffer in Europe. The record temperatures are not something most animals - vertebrate or invertebrate - have evolved with on that continent. Nor are many of the environments there fire tolerant ones; intense wildfires are not something these habitats - unlike many in Australia - can deal with, and as a result any damage will be profound. 

Even if we try to shrug it off and say, "Oh, it is only for a day or so," these kinds of temperature spikes can still cause immense damage – heat stroke can affect all sorts of animals and can be fatal. Sudden ‘stochastic’ weather events such as this are likely to cause spikes in mortality for birds, mammals, reptiles and insects.

Last updated:  20 Jul 2022 1:49pm
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Professor Yuming Guo is a researcher in Global Environmental Health and Biostatistics & Head of the Monash Climate, Air Quality Research Unit from the School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine at Monash University

In the last several days, deadly heatwaves have appeared in many countries across Europe and Asia. Many countries are experiencing temperatures above 40°C. Particularly, The UK has been experiencing a record-breaking temperature of 40.2°C, higher than a previous record of 38.7°C in 2019. Consequently, wildfires have appeared in some countries. This is a serious challenge for human health.

A number of studies (including studies from my group) have clearly provided robust evidence that extreme high temperatures (including heatwaves) and air pollution (including wildfire smoke) can increase risks of mortality and morbidity (e.g., hospital admissions, emergency department visits, ambulance calls). Pregnant women, infants, children, the elderly, people with chronic diseases (cardiovascular, respiratory, diabetes), people with mental health issues, and those with low seriocomic status are greatly impacted by high temperatures and wildfire smoke.

If there is no urgent climate action applied, I don't doubt that there will be more and more terrible heatwaves in the future. It is urgent to make policies for climate mitigation regarding reducing carbon emission and climate adaptation regarding protecting people from climate change.

Last updated:  20 Jul 2022 1:48pm
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