Diabetes forecast to increase 30% in Aotearoa by 2044

Embargoed until: Publicly released: 2025-01-24 00:01

New Zealand

Photo by Sweet Life on Unsplash

Researchers say that over half a million New Zealanders will have diabetes by 2044, according to a modelling study based on existing trends for both Type 1 and Type 2. If these trends continue, the numbers of people with diabetes will be almost 90% higher in two decades. After adjusting for population changes, the authors found there's a 30% increase in the underlying rates of diabetes. The increase is highest for Pacific people, with one in six females and one in seven males having diabetes by 2044. The authors say we need diabetes prevention and management strategies tailored for Pacific, Māori, and Asian populations, and recommend "immediate and bold action" to address trends that will otherwise overwhelm the health system.

Media release

From: Pasifika Medical Association Group

The diabetes epidemic, and the expansive breadth of services required for its management, elevate the need for high-quality evidence on the projected future burden. This study models existing diabetes trends by age, sex and birth cohort in Aotearoa New Zealand, to project out to 2040–2044.

There was a 90% increase in number of people with diabetes from 268,000 in 2015–2019 to 502,000 by 2040–2044. The number of people with diabetes is projected to increase from 5.6% to 8.5% of the population. After adjusting for the effects of population growth and ageing, there remained a 30% increase in the underlying prevalence of diabetes.

The biggest increases in diabetes prevalence were projected for Pacific peoples and Māori females. Projections support bold action on food environments and other evidence-based diabetes prevention tailored particularly for Māori, Pacific and (South) Asian groups.

Journal/
conference: New Zealand Medical Journal

Organisation/s: University of Otago, University of Waikato

Funder: Health Research Council of New Zealand (HRC reference #21/068).

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