COVID-19 measures in the US may have avoided around 250 million infections in 2020

Embargoed until: Publicly released: 2022-06-29 09:01

International

Non-pharmaceutical interventions such as mask-wearing, social distancing and staying home avoided around 248.3 million COVID-19 infections in the US before vaccines were available, according to a modelling study by international researchers. The team built a model based on initial estimates from published studies for infection and recovery rates, seasonality, changes in mobility and the effectiveness of masks.

Media release

From: The Royal Society

Estimating the effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions on US SARS-CoV-2 infections in the first year of the pandemic
Royal Society Open Science

SARS-CoV-2 emerged in late 2019 as a zoonotic infection of humans, and proceeded to cause a worldwide pandemic of historic magnitude. Epidemiological models played a key role in guiding public health interventions. Here we use a simple epidemiological model and consider the full range of initial estimates from published studies for infection and recovery rates, seasonality, changes in mobility and the effectiveness of masks. The results show that the combination of masks and changes in mobility avoided an estimated ~248.3 million (σ=31.2 million) infections in the United States before vaccinations became available

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conference: Royal Society Open Science

Research:Paper

Organisation/s: Colorado School of Mines, USA

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