Media release

From: AAAS

Compared with the 2015 Paris Agreement pledges by countries indicating their emissions targets, the updated pledges for this year’s 26th Conference of Parties suggest a strengthening of ambition through 2030, write Yang Ou and colleagues in this Policy Forum. By calculating probabilistic temperature outcomes over the 21st century for five emissions scenarios, the authors find that the updated pledges provide a stronger near-term foundation to deliver on the long-term goals of the Paris Agreement of reducing the probability of the worst levels of temperature change this century and increasing the likelihood of limiting temperature change to well below 2°Celsius. Ultimately, say the authors, realizing the long-term climate benefits described in this study will require putting words into action by implementing these newer and enhanced targets. This could entail substantial political, financial, institutional, social, and behavioral challenges.