Closing NZ’s border alone wouldn’t have eliminated COVID-19 last year

Embargoed until: Publicly released: 2021-11-17 11:01

New Zealand

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New modelling has explored other ways the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic could have played out in New Zealand in March and April 2020. The NZ team found that changing the timing of when New Zealand went into Alert Level 4 lockdown had a far greater impact than the timing of border measures, such that delaying lockdown resulted in “considerably worse outcomes” and reduced the chance of reaching elimination status. The team say moving quickly was the key to success in New Zealand’s COVID-19 response, which can help guide future response strategies.

Media release

From: The Royal Society

New Zealand responded to the COVID-19 pandemic with a combination of border restrictions and an Alert Level system that included strict stay-at-home orders. These interventions were successful in containing the March-April 2020 outbreak and ultimately eliminating community transmission of COVID-19 in June 2020. The timing of interventions is crucial to their success. We model COVID-19 transmission and control to simulate the epidemic trajectory in New Zealand's first outbreak under alternative timings of interventions. Changing the timing of Alert Level 4 (the strictest level of restrictions) has a far greater impact than the timing of border measures. Delaying Alert Level 4 results in considerably worse outcomes and reduces the chance of elimination. Implementing border measures alone, without Alert Level 4 restrictions, is insufficient to control the outbreak.

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Journal/
conference: Royal Society Open Science

Research:Paper

Organisation/s: Te Pūnaha Matatini, Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research, University of Canterbury, University of Otago, University of Auckland, Maurice Wilkins Centre for Molecular Biodiscovery

Funder: This work was funded by the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment and Te Pūnaha Matatini, a New Zealand Centre of Research Excellence

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