As Polymarket and other prediction markets grow, what do we have to lose?

Embargoed until: Publicly released: 2026-04-17 11:04

International

What does this mean?

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The rise of commercial prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi threatens to harm both democracy and the health of individuals if unchecked, according to international researchers. Prediction markets involve individuals betting on real-world events such as elections or drug development, and have been used as a forecasting tool under the assumption that at scale, people making financial bets on what they think will happen can predict events with some accuracy. The researchers say these markets are increasingly becoming gamified and profit-driven. They argue that unregulated, large-scale participation in these markets threatens democratic integrity by allowing a space for political manipulation and creates another gambling mechanism with the power to draw people at risk of addiction in the way other gambling platforms do.