News release

From: Macquarie University

A mythical army of genetically engineered raccoons has helped Australian researchers show that belief in conspiracy theories may be less common than previously thought.

Findings from a new Macquarie University study suggest many opinion poll surveys make belief in conspiracies look more common than it really is because some anonymous respondents don’t answer truthfully, instead trolling, joking or not taking questions seriously.

As part of an online survey, the Macquarie researchers asked 1044 Australians to rate each of seven conspiracy theories true or false. Six of these conspiracy theories were pre-existing and well aired, but one was invented by the research team and farcically bizarre: “The Canadian Armed Forces have been secretly developing an elite army of genetically engineered, super intelligent, giant raccoons to invade nearby countries”.

An astonishing 10 per cent of respondents said they rated the raccoon army theory as “probably true” or “definitely true”, and people who endorsed the raccoon army theory were much more likely to endorse the pre-existing conspiracy theories.

For example, 69 per cent of those who endorsed the raccoon theory also agreed that “A secret group of Satan-worshipping paedophiles has taken control of parts of the Australian federal government and mainstream Australian media”, compared to just 13 per cent of survey respondents overall.

Analysis showed those who accepted the racoon claim also endorsed an average of four of the six pre-existing conspiracy theories; those who rejected the raccoon story on average endorsed only one or none of the six other conspiracies.

Survey participants were also asked to consider two clearly contradictory theories about coronavirus – “Governments are covering up the fact that 5G mobile networks spread coronavirus” and “Coronavirus is a myth created by some powerful forces, and the virus does not really exist”.

Somewhat surprisingly, the researchers discovered that the group of “Raccoon army believers” were also far more likely (56 per cent versus 7 per cent overall) to agree with both conflicting coronavirus conspiracy theories.

The study investigators say their findings challenge widely-held assumptions about the prevalence of genuine belief in conspiracy theories.

“Survey research is often interpreted as showing that belief in conspiracy theories is widespread, even when theories would be astonishing if true,” said lead author Dr Robert Ross, of the School of Psychological Sciences at Macquarie.

“For example, the results of a 2013 survey were widely reported in the media as indicating that 12 million Americans endorsed the idea that shape-shifting lizard people actually control human societies and hold political power!”

In fact, 13 per cent of participants in the Macquarie research admitted in response to a follow-up question that they had answered earlier questions randomly or insincerely, and this group were found to have endorsed the greatest number of the six conspiracy theories.

A similar follow-up study in New Zealand, just published in Royal Society Open Science, has broadly replicated the Australian findings.

“As researchers, we need to get out of the habit of assuming that when participants say they agree with claims in a survey then they sincerely believe them,” said Dr Ross.

“We need to seriously consider that they might not be sincere – they may be joking, trolling or otherwise not saying what they really think, especially when the claims are bizarre.”