News release

From: The Lancet

Metabolic liver disease could affect nearly 1.8 billion people by 2050

Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD), formerly known as non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), remains one of the most prevalent and rapidly growing liver conditions worldwide, according to new research from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2023 published in The Lancet Gastroenterology & Hepatology journal. The study found that, in 2023, an estimated 1.3 billion people were living with MASLD, marking a 143% increase since 1990. The condition’s prevalence is projected to climb to approximately 1.8 billion by 2050, primarily driven by global population growth in combination with changes in lifestyle, such as rising obesity and high blood sugar levels.

Some regions, including North Africa and the Middle East, had disproportionately higher rates of MASLD compared with other regions. The study also found that although more people are developing the disease, the overall impact on health—measured in years lost due to illness or death—has remained stable. This suggests that advances in treatment and care are helping people live longer and healthier, and that the increase in the number of cases is mostly happening in the early stages of the disease. However, the growing number of cases still means that many people are at risk of developing serious complications like liver cirrhosis or cancer in the future.

The authors say these findings highlight that MASLD is increasingly affecting younger adults in low- and middle-income countries, amid urbanisation and lifestyle changes. These findings underscore the importance of recognising MASLD as a global health priority and of developing dedicated policies, awareness campaigns, and interventions to mitigate its growing impact and prevent future complications.