Malaria deaths could double if prevention is interrupted by COVID-19

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Peer-reviewed: This work was reviewed and scrutinised by relevant independent experts.

Simulation/modelling: This type of study uses a computer simulation or mathematical model to predict an outcome. The original values put into the model may have come from real-world measurements (eg: past spread of a disease used to model its future spread).

Malaria-related deaths in sub-Saharan Africa in 2020 could more than double since 2019 if COVID-19 interrupts malaria-prevention activities, according to international researchers. The authors used COVID-19- and malaria-transmission models to estimate the impact of disrupting malaria-prevention measures (such as distributing mosquito nets) and other essential health services under four different COVID-19 epidemic scenarios. They found that, in Nigeria alone, delaying distribution of mosquito nets could result in an average of 81,000 additional deaths. The authors say managing these effects is possible, as long as malaria prevention activities continue to be prioritised, along with COVID-19 interventions and social distancing.

Journal/conference: Nature Medicine

Link to research (DOI): 10.1038/s41591-020-1025-y

Organisation/s: Imperial College London, UK

Funder: This work was supported by funding from the UK Medical Research Council under a concordat with the UK Department for International Development (no. MR/R015600/1to M.B, L.O, P.W., A.G. and T.C), the Wellcome Trust (no. 200222/Z/15/Z to T.C.) and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (to A.G.).

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From: Springer Nature

Epidemiology: Malaria deaths could double in 2020 if prevention is interrupted by COVID-19

Malaria-related deaths in sub-Saharan Africa in 2020 could be more than double those of 2019 if malaria-prevention activities are interrupted due to COVID-19, suggests a modeling study published in Nature Medicine.

The malaria burden is heavily concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa, where COVID-19 cases are also rising. In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, countries in this region are implementing non-pharmaceutical measures to slow the transmission of the causative SARS-CoV-2 virus. The distribution of long-lasting insecticidal mosquito nets has had a major role in the control of malaria in sub-Saharan Africa, and many countries have net-distribution campaigns planned for 2020. However, it is unknown how COVID-19-related disruptions of these campaigns would impact the malaria disease burden.

Thomas Churcher and colleagues used COVID-19- and malaria-transmission models to estimate the impact of disrupting malaria-prevention initiatives and other essential health services under four different COVID-19 epidemic scenarios. They found that if malaria-prevention measures are stopped completely, the 2020 malaria burden could be more than double that of 2019. The authors showed that in Nigeria alone, reducing the malaria case management for six months and delaying the distribution of nets could result in an average of 81,000 additional deaths.

The authors note that managing these negative effects is possible. They argue that malaria-prevention activities—especially the distribution of mosquito nets—should be prioritized, along with access to antimalarial treatments, plus social distancing and the use of other non-pharmaceutical interventions to prevent the transmission of SARS-CoV-2. ​

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