EXPERT REACTION: Federal Government releases Australia's COVID-19 modelling
Simulation/modelling: This type of study uses a computer simulation or mathematical model to predict an outcome. The original values put into the model may have come from real-world measurements (eg: past spread of a disease used to model its future spread).
The Federal Government released the modelling behind its response to the COVID-19 pandemic yesterday. The modelling is theoretical and based on overseas data. Australia's Chief Medical Officer Dr Brendan Murphy said this should not be considered predictive of Australia's results, but covers three scenarios: an unmitigated scenario (uncontrolled spread), a scenario where we practice quarantine and self-isolation, and a scenario where we practice quarantine, self-isolation and social distancing measures. Independent experts comment on the modelling below.
Organisation/s: The University of Melbourne, The University of Adelaide, Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Murdoch Children's Research Institute (MCRI), The University of New South Wales, Monash University, Flinders University, University of Technology Sydney, University of Sydney, La Trobe University, Telethon Kids Institute, Curtin University, Walter and Eliza Hall Institute of Medical Research, University of Queensland
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Expert Reaction
These comments have been collated by the Science Media Centre to provide a variety of expert perspectives on this issue. Feel free to use these quotes in your stories. Views expressed are the personal opinions of the experts named. They do not represent the views of the SMC or any other organisation unless specifically stated.
He recently modelled the pandemic in Australia.