EXPERT REACTION: Climate change has not stopped for COVID-19 (United in Science 2020 Report)

This document is an urgent wake-up call. It shows that the global pandemic has slowed the growth in greenhouse gas emissions, but the overall trajectory is still going up. Whether we look at temperatures, rainfall patterns, ice cover or extreme events, the pattern of accelerating climate change is alarming. The average global temperature is already 1.1 degrees above the pre-industrial level and it has been calculated that there is a 70 per cent chance of monthly averages more than 1.5 degrees above the pre-industrial level before 2024.

These reports highlight “the enormous challenge facing the global community” if we are to prevent catastrophic climate change. They demonstrate that “achieving the temperature goals of the Paris Agreement...will require urgent and concerted action by all countries”.

This surely means that it is now indefensible to behave as if slowing climate change is a luxury, an optional extra if it doesn’t slow economic growth. More than 700 local authorities and several countries accept that we have “a climate emergency” that demands the “urgent and concerted action” now called for. So opening new coal provinces like the Galilee Basin, or expanding production of other fossil fuels such as coal seam gas, are acts of criminal irresponsibility. As well as curbing exports of fossil fuels and cleaning up electricity supply by investing in renewables, we desperately need a coordinated approach to our release of greenhouse gases, with particular attention to transport, agriculture and manufacturing. Like all other countries, we must take “urgent and concerted action”.

The United in Science report offers us remarkable perspective on the growing challenge of our warming world. The health effects of climate change are a central reason to listen to this expert report. The global increase in temperatures, rise in extreme weather events will have a growing effect on our health. Climate change remains a central health challenge for the 21st century. This report should inspire leaders around the world, and particularly in Australia toward rapid decarbonisation. Time is of the essence. It is past time for all policy makers to take this seriously.

This Report updates many of the key issues surrounding the global warming problem, mostly through 2019. There are no surprises, and the planet is still heading rapidly towards surpassing the warming targets prescribed in the Paris Agreement.

Emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) from fossil-fuel burning continue to rise, reaching an estimated 10 GtC in 2019 (36.7 GtCO2).

The economic disruption caused by the corona virus has reduced the trend slightly, but its multi-year effects are likely to be small.

CO2 concentrations have been rising more rapidly recently, an average of 2.5 ppm per year over 2012 through 2018, compared to an average of 2.0 ppm/yr for the 15 years preceding 2012.

Methane and nitrous oxide, the next two most important greenhouse gases, are still rising reaching record levels in 2019. Global-mean temperature over the past 5 years has reached 1.1 degC relative to the 1850-1900 pre-industrial level, sea level continues rise … at a rate more than double the rate observed over 1901-90 … mainly due to ice loss in Greenland and the Antarctic … most of the world’s mountain glaciers are retreating, and Arctic sea ice area still continues to decrease (echoed now in the Antarctic).

The Report, however, is not without flaws.

The so-called “emissions gap” is discussed, but there is apparently no realization of the complexity of this issue. The “gap” concept rests on the idea that we have a finite total emissions budget that we are in danger of surpassing soon.

The Report, however, fails to point out that the budget idea breaks down if the future trajectory of emissions has an overshoot period. An overshoot (hopefully followed by a sustained decrease in emissions) is becoming more and more likely as time passes. While there are risks associated with an overshoot, such as passing crucial “tipping points”, the good news is that this would allow a much larger budget.

The second major flaw is this: the Report is clear that “all (mitigation) options need to be brought into play”, but fails to mention the role of clean, reliable nuclear energy; and, while efficiency of energy production is mentioned, the role of increased efficiency of energy usage is not. Sadly, for the nuclear issue at least, this reflects both institutional bias, and personal biases in some of the Report’s authors.

The findings of the report are yet again another reminder that while we are busy finding ways out of the COVID-19 crisis and still analysing what went wrong in the last fire season, climate change continues to build the foundation of what will be the biggest ever global crisis if we don’t do more to mitigate it, and quickly.

There is a one in four chance that the global mean annual temperature will exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for at least one year over the coming five years. That is, in less than eight years since the Paris Agreement entered into force we might be touching that first critical threshold of 1.5°C, which 189 countries committed not to cross.

CO2 emissions have declined in 2020 due to reduced economic activity associated with COVID-19, but this has not led to any reduction in the total amount of CO2 in the atmosphere. Studies into the Earth’s past suggest that we are presently well outside the natural range of atmospheric CO2. The last time we were at these levels was 2 - 4 million years ago. 

Even if it were possible to eliminate all CO2 emissions tomorrow, the effects on global temperature would not be felt for decades to come because of inertia in the climate system. For this reason, we need to be considering climate change in investment decisions today because it is 'baked in' for the coming decades at least.

Risk Frontiers, a catastrophe modelling company in Sydney, is translating possible future carbon emission scenarios to business impacts. This translation is critical for investors to understand future climate-related risks and further reinforces the need to reduce emissions.

The United in Science 2020 report provides a timely overview of the dangerous trajectory our planet is headed.

Globally, we are wholly unprepared for higher temperatures, more drought and floods, melting ice sheets and rising sea levels threatening coastal and island communities such as Torres Strait Islanders.

The COVID-19 pandemic has been tough on everyone but should be a wake-up call that future planetary shocks are best avoided through urgent global co-ordinated action, particularly to reduce the Emissions Gap.

The report makes clear that although there were some declines in CO2 emissions due to reduced economic activity, we need sustained reductions to help close the gap.

The report notes that the period 2016-2020 is expected to be the warmest on record and the harsh evidence is already playing out right around Australia, as fisheries and coastal systems are increasingly being negatively impacted, from corals bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef to foundation species such as mangroves and kelp dying at an alarming rate.

Based on the latest and best scientific inputs, the results of this report are sobering indeed and a key recommendation that needs to be heard is to “build back better” as we reflect on the global COVID-19 pandemic

Australia’s koalas are in serious trouble, and have been for many decades. This was originally primarily due to land clearing. A koala simply cannot survive without its forest.

In 2012 we predicted, using CSIRO MK 3.5 A1FI future climate models, that the koala and its food trees would experience significant range contractions as climate change progressed, pushing them towards the east coast of Australia, where ongoing population growth and urbanisation make it almost impossible for koalas to survive. 

The United Science in 2020 Report validates what Australia’s koala researchers are seeing in real time; drought, heatwaves, and bushfires are now acting in synergy with habitat loss to produce dire consequences for many koala populations, and many other unique Australian species that share the same habitat.

The United in Science 2020 Report reiterates the consistent findings of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Global Atmosphere Watch program that atmospheric concentrations of the three most significant long-lived greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide; CO2, CH4 and N2O) continue to rise at significant and accelerating rates. The growing burden of these trace gases in the atmosphere continues to drive and accelerate climate impacts across the Earth system.

The Cape Grim Baseline Air Pollution Station (NW Tasmania) provides the principal data for tracking atmospheric composition change in the Southern Hemisphere. Observations at Cape Grim, highlighted in the Report, show that the CO2 concentration at Cape Grim reached 410.04 ppm in July 2020; an increase of 2.21 ppm since July 2019.

Despite reductions in fossil fuel CO2 emissions associated with measures to inhibit the spread of COVID-19, atmospheric concentrations of CO2 have continued to rise.

Estimated emissions reductions in 2020 relative to 2019 are of the order 4-7 per cent. This reduction might reduce the increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration by ~0.1-0.2 ppm compared to if there had there been no pandemic. However, this size change is well within the bounds of the current interannual variability (ranging from 2-3 ppm per year over the last decade), which is driven by variability in the natural carbon cycle.

Global efforts to curb greenhouse gas emissions in line with the Paris Agreement will need to harness structural changes to our energy and economic systems to lock in sustained emissions reductions of this order for several years before we see a significant slowing in the atmospheric growth rate of CO2 and begin to reap the benefits of avoided warming.

The 'United in Science' report estimates that in early April 2020, at the peak of the COVID-19 lockdowns, “daily global fossil CO2 emissions dropped 17 per cent”. However, as restrictions have eased, global emissions have now almost returned to pre-pandemic levels.

In 2020, global greenhouse gas emissions will be lower than in 2019. However, this is only thanks to the global COVID-19-induced recession. Atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases are continuing to increase at record rates. The gap between rhetoric and action on climate change is wider than ever.

If we are to limit warming to 1.5°C,  global emissions need to halve in each of the coming decades. Instead, in 2019, global emissions from fossil fuels increased slightly. A small decline in emissions from coal (–1.7 per cent) was offset by increased combustion of natural gas (2.0 per cent) and oil (0.8 per cent). 

Collectively, G20 countries are not on track to meet the commitments made under the Paris Agreement. However, the Paris targets are themselves hopelessly inadequate. Even if fully implemented, global emissions would actually be higher in 2030 than today.

The report stresses that limiting warming to 1.5°C will require “new technological solutions and gradual change in consumption patterns are needed at all levels." To reach net-zero emissions, measures that sequester or remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere must also be developed.

The report identifies a 24 per cent chance that temperatures in one of the next five years will exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. 

The consequences of projected climate change for fire risk, sea-level rise and extreme weather events are already becoming apparent. The report estimates that the likelihood of weather conditions such as those that contributed to Australia’s recent wildfires have increased by at least 30 per cent since 1900."

My comment that responds to the report but does not summarise its content:

"Australia's political debate seems entirely disconnected from the scientific realities captured in the ‘United in Science’ report. It is not only that the Morrison Government lacks effective mitigation policies, it is failing to honour even some of its key promises. For example, it is not fulfilling its 2015 'Mission Innovation' pledge to double government spending on clean energy research and development by 2020. 

Meanwhile, the urgent need to develop negative emissions technologies, which the United in Science report identifies, has not yet entered mainstream debate. If current trends continue, we may soon also be debating more drastic and risky interventions. For example, calls to stabilise the global temperature through ‘solar geoengineering’ may grow louder. Trials to protect specific areas such as the Great Barrier Reef, via cloud brightening, are already underway.

This new United in Science 2020 Report is significant in that it brings together recent climate change updates from a group of key global science organisations. 

In particular, it provides compelling, science-based messages regarding current and near-future impacts of climate change. A key message is that there is a significant and growing chance of exceeding the 1.5°C global warming level in the next five years. 

Notably, the report summarises evidence that, while CO2 emissions have declined in 2020 in association with COVID19, these reductions will not lead to a discernible reduction in the atmospheric concentrations of long-lived greenhouses. Sustained reductions in emissions are needed to stabilise global warming.

The new report summarises findings from the IPCC-SROCC report, emphasising that ocean and ice environments around the world are changing at an unprecedented rate, with profound consequences for ecosystems and for human communities globally. 

The UiS Report describes so-called ‘High Impact Events’ influenced by anthropogenic climate change, including the 2019-2020 bushfires in Australia. The likelihood of the weather conditions that led to those wildfires has increased by at least 30 per cent since 1900, as a result of anthropogenic climate change.

A new report entitled United in Science 2020, compiled by authors from a wide range of international agencies, provides a comprehensive and concise coverage of human-induced climate change. 

The findings are:

While the greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide and methane occur naturally in the atmosphere, a huge and growing global demand for energy has greatly increased their levels because of the production and use of fossil fuels.

Extensive agriculture has added to these carbon dioxide and methane levels. These two gases trap heat in the atmosphere. The result is that Earth’s average temperature has increased on average by 1.1°C above that prior to the beginning of the Industrial Revolution.

Ninety percent of this heat is transferred to the oceans, with the consequence that fish and other aquatic species are changing the regions of the oceans they occupy. This impacts on fisheries and food supply.
This warming also causes water to expand and sea levels to rise.

Additionally, this warming causes land-based glaciers to melt, such that more water flows into the oceans to add to sea-level rise. This in turn is likely to decrease the seasonal availability of fresh river water for 1.5 billion people.

Overall, sea level rise poses a severe threat of flooding to low-lying land, particularly to coral atolls.
In addition to these effects, it appears that the extremes of drought and heavy rainfall events will become more severe. In both cases this is likely to affect food supply adversely. In the case of drought, the likelihood of wildfires increases substantially.

To ensure that Earth’s human-induced temperature does not exceed a manageable 2°C, and preferably 1.5°C, as required by the Paris Agreement, a rapid and complete switch away from fossil fuel-based energy to alternative energy sources is required, in addition to a great increase in energy usage efficiency. 

In addition, methods for extracting carbon dioxide directly from the atmosphere will be necessary. Fortunately, these three objectives are now looking increasingly achievable, although it will be a close-run thing.

Since 2010, multiple sources show record impacts on heatwaves, global temperatures, arctic melt and even arctic wildfires.

According to a report released today by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) under direction of the United Nations Secretary-General, the impact of COVID-19 is similar to what is needed to bring the world back on track for the Paris Agreement, and the next five years to 2025 are critical.

Opportunities exist in renewables and behavioural change to divert catastrophe, but COVID shows just how much change is needed to avoid the worst impacts of climate change on our young - our children imminently face a decimated biosphere, mass extinction, more natural disasters, famine, heatwaves and water shortages. What confuses most climate scientists is how COVID, a disease where 80 percent of deaths affect the elderly (>65), rapidly shut down the global economy whereas carbon emissions have steadily increased 62 percent since climate negotiations began 30 years ago and we are now heading for an increase of 3.2 degrees Celsius by 2100.  

This means the collapse of the Amazon and the polar ice caps, ocean acidification, inundated coastal cities and most of the Mediterranean on fire, among others. Is the survival of our children less important than the elderly? The fact that the elderly (>55) took 70 percent of Australia's total $2.3 trillion earnings last year might have something to do with our national reticence to tackle climate change. Or is it that the top 1 percent in Australia own the same as the poorest 70 percent, mostly young?

Even though COVID confinement decreased emissions by 17 percent in April 2020, mostly from transport, the level it fell to was still way above 1990 levels, settling on the same global emissions of 2006. Within a month, July saw it rise back up close to 2019 levels. The end result is that COVID will hardly put the brakes on emissions precisely because more countries than ever are deeply embedded in the wrong kinds of economic development and the wrong kinds of consumption patterns.

According to this report, the world is undeniably failing to reach its 2030 Paris targets to keep global warming below +1.5 degrees Celsius, even despite COVID. The global trend has already reached +1.1 degrees Celsius since pre-industrial values.

Closer to home, all you need do is check the public BOM anomalies over the past 60 years to see Australian maxima increased by a whopping 1.5 degrees since 1950 alone, almost linearly, with the major crossover in 1985.

In line with this, the frequency of catastrophic Australian bushfires has gone from 85 years (in 1910) to every 8 years (2020), with at least 30 percent directly attributable to climate change.

School strikes and unprecedented megafires refocused our attention on climate change but the rise of COVID-19 swiftly diverted the world's attention. For anyone thinking COVID will dampen economic activity enough to forestall the worst of climate change, the latest report says no - whilst emissions have fallen to 2006 levels, the concentrations of carbon dioxide and methane in the atmosphere is still rising, even while the global economy is shut down.

This is because 93 percent of concentrations affecting temperature have come from past emissions with a lag time of about 10 years - those serving, once again, the major recipients of economic output, being the top 1 percent and the elderly.

On top of this, even with economic activity flattened by COVID, the world's economies in 2020 are still pumping out more emissions than they did during the Global Financial Crisis. This is because all nations are becoming, on average, more reliant on fossil fuels and meat consumption.

In essence, emissions have fallen due to economic dampening from COVID but concentrations continue to rise in the atmosphere. Australia has drastically reduced its carbon footprint per capita over the past decade, and even had 10 minutes on 6 November 2019 when 50% of the grid was powered by renewables, but it must increase efforts to model global citizenship so as to encourage the six largest emitters to do likewise - China, USA, EU28, India, Russia and Japan. Without action across all nations in the next five years, this report suggests we will hit runaway climate change before the end of the century, making much of the world uninhabitable.

The science is clear. Climate change is already affecting human communities. Sea-level rise is accelerating, flood risk is increasing for 1.6 billion more people, more than ever before. Extreme weather events on land and in the oceans have grown in number and frequency.  The research literature is clear and huge, some IPCC reports encompass assessments of more than 30,000 research papers and the scientific evidence is unequivocal.

Our ambition to mitigate climate change is falling further behind the Paris agreement and the agreed threshold of keeping warming to less than 2 degrees or better. Time is running out to meet these agreements. This report shows that climate change is an urgent problem and is essential reading.