Almost 50 million Americans may have had COVID - but herd immunity is still a long way off

Embargoed until: Publicly released:
Peer-reviewed: This work was reviewed and scrutinised by relevant independent experts.

Observational study: A study in which the subject is observed to see if there is a relationship between two or more things (eg: the consumption of diet drinks and obesity). Observational studies cannot prove that one thing causes another, only that they are linked.

People: This is a study based on research using people.

As of November 2020, an estimated 46.9 million Americans, or more than 14 per cent of the US population, are likely to have had SARS-CoV-2 infections, with only around 28.1 million of those being symptomatic, according to US research. The study used data from public health surveillance and surveys of COVID antibodies among the general population to estimate COVID-19 rates. It found that although more than 14 per cent of the US population was infected with SARSCoV-2 by mid-November, a substantial gap remains before herd immunity can be reached.

Journal/conference: JAMA Network Open

Link to research (DOI): 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2020.33706

Organisation/s: Pfizer Vaccines

Funder: This work was supported by Pfizer and Merck.

Media release

From: JAMA

Estimation of US SARS-CoV-2 Infections, Symptomatic Infections, Hospitalizations, Deaths

JAMA Network Open
Original Investigation

Estimation of US SARS-CoV-2 Infections, Symptomatic Infections, Hospitalizations, and Deaths Using Seroprevalence Surveys

About JAMA Network Open: JAMA Network Open is the new online-only open access general medical journal from the JAMA Network. On weekdays, the journal publishes peer-reviewed clinical research and commentary in more than 40 medical and health subject areas. Every article is free online from the day of publication.

What The Study Did: Data from public health surveillance of reported COVID-19 cases and seroprevalence surveys were used in this observational study that reports an estimated 46.9 million SARS-CoV-2 infections, 28.1 million symptomatic infections, 956,174 hospitalizations and 304,915 deaths occurred in the U.S. through November 15, 2020.

Authors: Frederick J. Angulo, D.V.M., Ph.D., of  Medical Development and Scientific/Clinical Affairs of Pfizer Vaccines, is the corresponding author.

(doi:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2020.33706)

Editor’s Note: The article includes conflict of interest and funding/support disclosures. Please see the article for additional information, including other authors, author contributions and affiliations, conflict of interest and financial disclosures, and funding and support.

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