PHOTO: Kate Trifo/Unsplash
PHOTO: Kate Trifo/Unsplash

Universal face masking could save almost 130,000 lives in US

Embargoed until: Publicly released:
Peer-reviewed: This work was reviewed and scrutinised by relevant independent experts.

Simulation/modelling: This type of study uses a computer simulation or mathematical model to predict an outcome. The original values put into the model may have come from real-world measurements (eg: past spread of a disease used to model its future spread).

New modelling suggests that more than half a million U.S lives could be lost to COVID-19 by the end of February 2021, but that number could be significantly reduced if 95 per cent of Americans always wore a face mask in public. The researchers analysed the spread of the coronavirus from the first case to the end of September this year, and modelled different scenarios to see how non-pharmaceutical interventions like wearing a face mask might have an impact in the coming months. Even if 85 per cent of the population consistently face masked, they estimate that around 95,000 lives would still be saved by the end of February.

Journal/conference: Nature Medicine

Link to research (DOI): 10.1038/s41591-020-1132-9

Organisation/s: The University of Queensland, QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute, University of Washington, USA

Funder: This study was funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. The funders of the study had no role in study design, data collection, data analysis, data interpretation, writing of the final report or the decision to publish. A.F. reports personal fees from Kaiser Permanente and NORC and other support from Agathos, all outside the submitted work. The spouse of J.R.S. is employed by The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and had no role in study design, data collection, data analysis, data interpretation, writing of the manuscript or the decision to submit the manuscript for publication.

Media release

From: Springer Nature

More than a half million lives could be lost to COVID-19 by 28 February 2021 in the USA, suggests a modeling study published in Nature Medicine. The paper also estimates that universal mask use could prevent the worst effects of epidemic resurgences in many states and could save nearly 130,000 of those half million lives.

There is still no approved vaccine against COVID-19 and there are few pharmaceutical options for the treatment of COVID-19 in the USA. Therefore, non-pharmaceutical interventions—such as the wearing of masks, social distancing, increased testing and the isolation of infected people—are the only tools available for reducing transmission.

Christopher Murray and colleagues present a state-level epidemiological analysis of the spread of SARS-CoV-2 infection across the USA and the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions, from the first recorded case to 21 September 2020. Using a ‘Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Recovered’ framework, the authors include projections of several variables—including seasonal pneumonia, mobility, testing rates and mask use per capita—to assess various scenarios of social-distancing mandates and levels of mask use from 22 September 2020 to 28 February 2021. Under all scenarios, the authors find that the USA is likely to face a continued COVID-19 public-health challenge through the winter, with populous states—such as California, Texas and Florida—in particular facing high levels of illness, deaths (as many as 511,373) and demands on hospital resources.

However, new epidemics and resurgences are not inevitable, the authors suggest. Several countries have sustained reductions in COVID-19 over time. Mask use is a relatively affordable and low-impact intervention that can save lives across the USA. The authors estimate that universal mask use (if 95% of the population in each state always wore a mask when in public) could save an additional 129,574 lives through the end of February 2021, or an additional 95,814 lives under a scenario of less adoption of mask wearing

Attachments:

Note: Not all attachments are visible to the general public

  •  Research
    Springer Nature
    Web page
    URL will go live when embargo lifts.

News for:

Australia
International
QLD

Media contact details for this story are only visible to registered journalists.